Related papers: An Efficient Approach to Ab Initio Monte Carlo Sim…
Bayesian analysis is widely used in science and engineering for real-time forecasting, decision making, and to help unravel the processes that explain the observed data. These data are some deterministic and/or stochastic transformations of…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods often take many iterations to converge for highly correlated or high-dimensional target density functions. Methods such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) or No-U-Turn Sampling (NUTS) use the…
In many real-world engineering systems, the performance or reliability of the system is characterised by a scalar parameter. The distribution of this performance parameter is important in many uncertainty quantification problems, ranging…
Demand for high-performance, robust, and safe autonomous systems has grown substantially in recent years. These objectives motivate the desire for efficient safety-theoretic reasoning that can be embedded in core decision-making tasks such…
Employing Bayesian inference to calibrate constitutive model parameters has grown substantially in recent years. Among the available techniques, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling remains one of the most widely used approaches for…
We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to generate samples from probability distributions supported on a $d$-dimensional lattice $\Lambda = \mathbf{B}\mathbb{Z}^d$, where $\mathbf{B}$ is a full-rank matrix. Specifically,…
I introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme in which sampling from a distribution with density pi(x) is done using updates operating on an "ensemble" of states. The current state x is first stochastically mapped to an ensemble,…
We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…
The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are popular when considering sampling from a high-dimensional random variable $\mathbf{x}$ with possibly unnormalised probability density $p$ and observed data $\mathbf{d}$. However, MCMC requires…
A macroscopic mesoscopic, deterministic stochastic coupling strategy is proposed to accelerate the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method for chemical reaction. First, a macroscopic synthetic equation is formulated by integrating…
The potential of mean force (PMF) between two nano crystals (NCs) represents an effective interaction potential that can be used to study the assembly of NCs to various superstructures. For a given temperature, the effective interaction is…
We simulate crystallization and melting with local Monte Carlo (LMC), event-chain Monte Carlo (ECMC), and with event-driven molecular dynamics (EDMD) in systems with up to one million three-dimensional hard spheres. We illustrate that our…
Many high dimensional optimization problems can be reformulated into a problem of finding theoptimal state path under an equivalent state space model setting. In this article, we present a general emulation strategy for developing a state…
We leverage multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) to improve the performance of multi-step look-ahead Bayesian optimization (BO) methods that involve nested expectations and maximizations. Often these expectations must be computed by Monte Carlo…
We propose kernel sequential Monte Carlo (KSMC), a framework for sampling from static target densities. KSMC is a family of sequential Monte Carlo algorithms that are based on building emulator models of the current particle system in a…
The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models, combining model computations at different levels…
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have become standard tools in statistics to sample from complex probability measures. Many available techniques rely on discrete-time reversible Markov chains whose transition kernels build up over the…
Nested integration problems arise in various scientific and engineering applications, including Bayesian experimental design, financial risk assessment, and uncertainty quantification. These nested integrals take the form $\int f\left(\int…
Single-site Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a variant of MCMC in which a single coordinate in the state space is modified in each step. Structured relational models are a good candidate for this style of inference. In the single-site…
We present a general framework for accelerating a large class of widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Our approach exploits fast, iterative approximations to the target density to speculatively evaluate many potential…