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We present a "module-based hybrid" Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) framework for general nonlinear multi-physics simulation. The proposed methodology, introduced in [\hyperlink{ref1}{1}], supports the independent development of each…

Computational Physics · Physics 2014-10-21 Akshay Mittal , Xiao Chen , Charles Tong , Gianluca Iaccarino

Predicting the behavior of complex systems in engineering often involves significant uncertainty about operating conditions, such as external loads, environmental effects, and manufacturing variability. As a result, uncertainty…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-17 S. Marelli , S. Schär , B. Sudret

This work introduces the network uncertainty quantification (NetUQ) method for performing uncertainty propagation in systems composed of interconnected components. The method assumes the existence of a collection of components, each of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-09-02 Kevin Carlberg , Sofia Guzzetti , Mohammad Khalil , Khachik Sargsyan

State-of-the-art computer codes for simulating real physical systems are often characterized by a vast number of input parameters. Performing uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks with Monte Carlo (MC) methods is almost always infeasible…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-10-17 Rohit Tripathy , Ilias Bilionis

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a booming discipline for complex computational models based on the analysis of robustness, reliability and credibility. UQ analysis for nonlinear crash models with high dimensional outputs presents…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-03-31 Marc Rocas , Alberto García-González , Xabier Larrayoz , Pedro Díez

Using a cyclotron based model problem, we demonstrate for the first time the applicability and usefulness of a uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach in order to construct surrogate models for quantities such as emittance, energy spread…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2018-12-13 Andreas Adelmann

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision wastes valuable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 Lior Hirschfeld , Kyle Swanson , Kevin Yang , Regina Barzilay , Connor W. Coley

Predicting fuel assembly bow in pressurized water reactors requires solving tightly coupled fluid-structure interaction problems, whose direct simulations can be computationally prohibitive, making large-scale uncertainty quantification…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-27 Ali Abboud , Josselin Garnier , Bertrand Leturcq , Stanislas de Lambert

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques are frequently used to ascertain output variability in systems with parametric uncertainty. Traditional algorithms for UQ are either system-agnostic and slow (such as Monte Carlo) or fast with…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-19 Tuhin Sahai , Jose Miguel Pasini

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Apostolos F Psaros , Xuhui Meng , Zongren Zou , Ling Guo , George Em Karniadakis

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a key discipline for computational modeling of complex systems, enhancing reliability of engineering simulations. In crashworthiness, having an accurate assessment of the behavior of the model uncertainty…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-17 Marc Rocas , Alberto García-González , Sergio Zlotnik , Xabier Larráyoz , Pedro Díez

We present a novel physics-constrained polynomial chaos expansion as a surrogate modeling method capable of performing both scientific machine learning (SciML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks. The proposed method possesses a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-14 Himanshu Sharma , Lukáš Novák , Michael D. Shields

We analyze an ensemble-based approach for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in atomistic neural networks. This method generates an epistemic uncertainty signal without requiring changes to the underlying multi-headed regression neural network…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-11-21 Idan Fonea , Amir Peles , Sivan Niv , Goren Gordon , Amir Natan

Image-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling enables derivation of hemodynamic information, which has become a paradigm in cardiovascular research and healthcare. Nonetheless, the predictive accuracy largely depends on precisely…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-07-20 Han Gao , Xueyu Zhu , Jian-Xun Wang

Predictive estimation, which comprises model calibration, model prediction, and validation, is a common objective when performing inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) in diverse scientific applications. These techniques typically require…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-07-17 Ningxin Yang , Truong Le , Lidija Zdravković , David M. Potts

Machine learning methods for the construction of data-driven reduced order model models are used in an increasing variety of engineering domains, especially as a supplement to expensive computational fluid dynamics for design problems. An…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-28 Stephen Guth , Alireza Mojahed , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

We present a hybrid sampling-surrogate approach for reducing the computational expense of uncertainty quantification in nonlinear dynamical systems. Our motivation is to enable rapid uncertainty quantification in complex mechanical systems…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-27 Hang Yang , Yuji Fujii , K. W. Wang , Alex A. Gorodetsky

Most uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches provide a single scalar value as a measure of model reliability. However, different uncertainty measures could provide complementary information on the prediction confidence. Even measures…

In this work we introduce a manifold learning-based method for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in systems describing complex spatiotemporal processes. Our first objective is to identify the embedding of a set of high-dimensional data…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-05-18 Katiana Kontolati , Dimitrios Loukrezis , Ketson R. M. dos Santos , Dimitrios G. Giovanis , Michael D. Shields

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important for reliability assessment and enhancement of machine learning models. In deep learning, uncertainties arise not only from data, but also from the training procedure that often injects…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-13 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang
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