Related papers: Increasing Herd Immunity with Influenza Revaccinat…
Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. In this paper, we model the Influenza Pandemic of 2009. We propose a hybrid model to determine how the pandemic spreads through the world. The…
The impact of information dissemination on epidemic control is essentially subject to individual behaviors. Unlike information-driven behaviors, vaccination is determined by many cost-related factors, whose correlation with the information…
The 1918 influenza pandemic was characterized by multiple epidemic waves. We investigated into reactive social distancing, a form of behavioral responses, and its effect on the multiple influenza waves in the United Kingdom. Two forms of…
Understanding how misinformation affects the spread of disease is crucial for public health, especially given recent research indicating that misinformation can increase vaccine hesitancy and discourage vaccine uptake. However, it is…
This paper presents several simple linear vaccination-based control strategies for a SEIR (susceptible plus infected plus infectious plus removed populations) propagation disease model. The model takes into account the total population…
Despite many studies on the transmission mechanism of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it remains still challenging to efficiently reduce mortality. In this work, we apply a two-population…
Dengue remains a major global public health concern due to its high mortality and economic burden. Mathematical modeling is essential to understand its transmission mechanisms and for evaluating intervention strategies. In this paper, we…
With a simple phenomenological metapopulation model, which characterizes the invasion process of an influenza pandemic from a source to a subpopulation at risk, we compare the efficiency of inter- and intra-population interventions in…
Background: Information on influenza-associated mortality in Russia is limited. Methods: Using previously developed methodology (Goldstein et al., Epidemiology 2012), we regressed the monthly rates of mortality for respiratory causes, as…
We introduce a new measure of antigenic distance between influenza A vaccine and circulating strains. The measure correlates well with efficacies of the H3N2 influenza A component of the annual vaccine between 1971 and 2004, as do results…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model has successfully mimicked the propagation of such airborne diseases as influenza A (H1N1). Although the SIR model has recently been studied in a multilayer networks configuration, in almost all…
We consider optimal vaccination protocol where the vaccine is in short supply. In this case, disease extinction results from a large and rare fluctuation. We show that the probability of such fluctuation can be exponentially increased by…
The accurate estimation of time-varying transmission rates is fundamental for understanding infectious disease dynamics and implementing effective public health interventions. To this end, we propose an improved inverse method for…
Decline of immunity is a phenomenon characterized by immunocompromised host and plays a crucial role in the epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) such as COVID-19. In this paper, we propose an age-structured model with…
We develop a multiple compartment Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the spread of several infectious diseases through different geographic areas. Additionally, we propose a data-quality sensitive optimization framework…
We use analytical methods to investigate a continuous vaccination strategy effects on the infectious disease dynamics in a closed population and a demographically open population. The methodology and key assumptions are based on Breda et al…
The Influenza A virus belongs to the Orthomyxoviridae family. Influenza virus infection occurs yearly in all countries of the world. It usually kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people and causes severe illness in millions more. Over the…
There is great interest in the dynamics of health behaviors in social networks and how they affect collective public health outcomes, but measuring population health behaviors over time and space requires substantial resources. Here, we use…
Public health surveillance systems often fail to detect emerging infectious diseases, particularly in resource limited settings. By integrating relevant clinical and internet-source data, we can close critical gaps in coverage and…
Background: Network-based interventions are most powerful against epidemics when the full network structure is known. However, resource constraints often require decisions based on partial network data. We investigated how the effectiveness…