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We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our approach is based on the discovery of a set of latent, shared dynamical behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-11-21 Emily B. Fox , Erik B. Sudderth , Michael I. Jordan , Alan S. Willsky

We propose a new Bayesian tracking and parameter learning algorithm for non-linear non-Gaussian multiple target tracking (MTT) models. We design a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution of the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-10-28 Lan Jiang , Sumeetpal S. Singh , Sinan Yıldırım

Due to the escalating growth of big data sets in recent years, new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parallel computing methods have been developed. These methods partition large data sets by observations into subsets. However, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-21 Zheng Wei , Erin M. Conlon

We deal with Bayesian inference for Beta autoregressive processes. We restrict our attention to the class of conditionally linear processes. These processes are particularly suitable for forecasting purposes, but are difficult to estimate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-08-03 R. Casarin , L. Dalla Valle , F. Leisen

Bayesian computation crucially relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In the case of massive data sets, running the Metropolis-Hastings sampler to draw from the posterior distribution becomes prohibitive due to the large…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-07 Roberto Casarin , Radu V. Craiu , Fabrizio Leisen

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Existing work on Bayesian decision trees uses MCMC.…

Computation · Statistics 2023-01-24 Efthyvoulos Drousiotis , Paul G. Spirakis , Simon Maskell

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is the predominant tool used in Bayesian parameter estimation for hierarchical models. When the model expands due to an increasing number of hierarchical levels, number of groups at a particular level, or…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-22 Will Landau , Jarad Niemi

We consider the situation where a temporal process is composed of contiguous segments with differing slopes and replicated noise-corrupted time series measurements are observed. The unknown mean of the data generating process is modelled as…

Hierarchical data with multiple observations per group is ubiquitous in empirical sciences and is often analyzed using mixed-effects regression. In such models, Bayesian inference gives an estimate of uncertainty but is analytically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Alex Kipnis , Marcel Binz , Eric Schulz

Developing efficient MCMC algorithms is indispensable in Bayesian inference. In parallel tempering, multiple interacting MCMC chains run to more efficiently explore the state space and improve performance. The multiple chains advance…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-15 A. Marie d'Avigneau , S. S. Singh , L. M. Murray

Advances in digital sensors, digital data storage and communications have resulted in systems being capable of accumulating large collections of data. In the light of dealing with the challenges that massive data present, this work proposes…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-09 Allan De Freitas , François Septier , Lyudmila Mihaylova

Indian Buffet Process based models are an elegant way for discovering underlying features within a data set, but inference in such models can be slow. Inferring underlying features using Markov chain Monte Carlo either relies on an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-13 Michael M. Zhang , Avinava Dubey , Sinead A. Williamson

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our results can be used…

Applications · Statistics 2017-10-03 Christos Merkatas , Konstantinos Kaloudis , Spyridon J. Hatjispyros

In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…

Computation · Statistics 2012-01-19 Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

Functional mixed models are widely useful for regression analysis with dependent functional data, including longitudinal functional data with scalar predictors. However, existing algorithms for Bayesian inference with these models only…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-14 Thomas Y. Sun , Daniel R. Kowal

Latent feature models are a powerful tool for modeling data with globally-shared features. Nonparametric exchangeable models such as the Indian Buffet Process offer modeling flexibility by letting the number of latent features be unbounded.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-08-27 Finale Doshi-Velez , Sinead A. Williamson

We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for bi-variate data observed in time but with observation times which occur non-synchronously. In particular, this occurs in a wide variety of applications in finance, such as high-frequency…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani , Amin Wu

Leaving posterior sensitivity concerns aside, non-identifiability of the parameters does not raise a difficulty for Bayesian inference as far as the posterior is proper, but multi-modality or flat regions of the posterior induced by the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-22 Toru Kitagawa , Yizhou Kuang

Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) on large datasets has developed rapidly in recent years. However, the underlying methods are generally limited to relatively simple settings where the data have specific forms of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-18 Robert Salomone , Matias Quiroz , Robert Kohn , Mattias Villani , Minh-Ngoc Tran

Varying coefficient models (VCMs) are widely used for estimating nonlinear regression functions for functional data. Their Bayesian variants using Gaussian process priors on the functional coefficients, however, have received limited…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-01 Rajarshi Guhaniyogi , Cheng Li , Terrance D. Savitsky , Sanvesh Srivastava
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