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In statistical data assimilation (SDA) and supervised machine learning (ML), we wish to transfer information from observations to a model of the processes underlying those observations. For SDA, the model consists of a set of differential…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-01-22 Zheng Fang , Adrian S. Wong , Kangbo Hao , Alexander J. A. Ty , Henry D. I. Abarbanel

We introduce a Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method, which provides prediction of future paths, given any generative model. At any given date, it averages future quantities over generated price paths whose past history matches, or `shadows',…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-04 Rudy Morel , Stéphane Mallat , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

This paper covers a massive acceleration of Monte-Carlo based pricing method for financial products and financial derivatives. The method is applicable in risk management settings, where a financial product has to be priced under a number…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2008-09-30 Stefan Dirnstorfer , Andreas J. Grau

We present a tractable non-independent increment process which provides a high modeling flexibility. The process lies on an extension of the so-called Harris chains to continuous time being stationary and Feller. We exhibit constructions,…

Applications · Statistics 2016-05-19 Michelle Anzarut , Ramses H. Mena

The so-called phaseless quantum Monte-Carlo method currently offers one of the best performing theoretical framework to investigate interacting Fermi systems. It allows to extract an approximate ground-state wavefunction by averaging…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2017-03-31 Olivier Juillet , Alexandre Leprévost , Jérémy Bonnard , Raymond Frésard

This paper develops a new dual approach to compute the hedging portfolio of a Bermudan option and its initial value. It gives a "purely dual" algorithm following the spirit of Rogers (2010) in the sense that it only relies on the dual…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-18 Aurélien Alfonsi , Ahmed Kebaier , Jérôme Lelong

We propose here some new sampling algorithms for Path Sampling in the case when stochastic dynamics are used. In particular, we present a new proposal function for equilibrium sampling of paths with a Monte-Carlo dynamics (the so-called…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Gabriel Stoltz

We consider a class of stochastic path-dependent volatility models where the stochastic volatility, whose square follows the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, is multiplied by a (leverage) function of the spot price, its running maximum, and time.…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-10-09 Andrei Cozma , Christoph Reisinger

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has emerged as a powerful Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to sample from complex continuous distributions. However, a fundamental limitation of HMC is that it can not be applied to distributions with…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-10 Guangyao Zhou

We propose a new method for finding statistical arbitrages that can contain more assets than just the traditional pair. We formulate the problem as seeking a portfolio with the highest volatility, subject to its price remaining in a band…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-14 Kasper Johansson , Thomas Schmelzer , Stephen Boyd

This paper is concerned with portfolio selection for an investor with exponential, power, and logarithmic utility in multi-asset financial markets allowing jumps. We investigate the classical Merton's portfolio optimization problem in a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-04 Sigui Brice Dro , Emmanuel Gnabeyeu

We propose algorithms for solving high-dimensional Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) that combine a probabilistic interpretation of PDEs, through Feynman-Kac representation, with sparse interpolation. Monte-Carlo methods and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-25 Marie Billaud-Friess , Arthur Macherey , Anthony Nouy , Clémentine Prieur

This paper proposes a new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the ergodic SDEs which do not satisfy the contractivity condition. By introducing the change of measure technique, we simulate the path with contractivity and add the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-12-11 Wei Fang , Michael B. Giles

Many problems require to approximate an expected value by some kind of Monte Carlo (MC) sampling, e.g. molecular dynamics (MD) or simulation of stochastic reaction models (also termed kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC)). Often, we are furthermore…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-02-18 Sandra Döpking , Sebastian Matera

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling methods provide a mechanism for defining distant proposals with high acceptance probabilities in a Metropolis-Hastings framework, enabling more efficient exploration of the state space than standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-13 Tianqi Chen , Emily B. Fox , Carlos Guestrin

We show that repulsive random variables can yield Monte Carlo methods with faster convergence rates than the typical $N^{-1/2}$, where $N$ is the number of integrand evaluations. More precisely, we propose stochastic numerical quadratures…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-18 Rémi Bardenet , Adrien Hardy

We introduce a dynamical fermion algorithm which is based on the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm, but without pseudofermions. The molecular dynamics steps in HMC are retained except the derivatives with respect to the gauge fields are…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2009-10-28 K. F. Liu , S. J. Dong , C. Thron

In recent years efficient algorithms have been developed for the numerical computation of relativistic single-particle path integrals in quantum field theory. Here, we adapt this "worldline Monte Carlo" approach to the standard problem of…

One of the most demanding calculations is to generate random samples from a specified probability distribution (usually with an unknown normalizing prefactor) in a high-dimensional configuration space. One often has to resort to using a…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-06-18 Youhan Fang , Jesus-Maria Sanz-Serna , Robert D. Skeel

Elastic systems that are spatially heterogeneous in their mechanical response pose special challenges for molecular simulations. Standard methods for sampling thermal fluctuations of a system's size and shape proceed through a series of…

Materials Science · Physics 2015-05-13 Sander Pronk , Phillip L. Geissler
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