Related papers: Coevolutionary immune system dynamics driving path…
Infectious pathogens often propagate by superspreading, which focusses onward transmission on disproportionately few infected individuals. At the same time, infector-infectee pairs tend to have more similar transmission potentials than…
Computational multi-scale pandemic modelling remains a major and timely challenge. Here we identify specific requirements for a new class of models simulating pandemics across three scales: (1) pathogen evolution, often punctuated by the…
During infectious disease epidemics, pathogen transmission occurs in host populations made up of interacting subpopulations. Using stochastic simulation and analytical approximations, we examine how outbreak sizes in networked populations…
We introduce a model called Host-Pathogen game for studying biological competitions. Notably, we focus on the invasive dynamics of external agents, like bacteria, within a host organism. The former are mapped to a population of defectors…
Using a set of heterogeneous competing systems with intra-system cooperation and inter-system aggression, we show how the coevolution of the system parameters (degree of organization and conditions for aggression) depends on the rate of…
Pathogen transmission and virulence are main evolutionary variables broadly assumed to be linked through trade-offs. In well-mixed populations, these trade-offs are often ascribed to physiological restrictions, while populations with…
We present a methodology providing a one-directional link from within-host individual heterogeneity to population-level disease transmission dynamics. The methodology works in several steps. A within-host model is investigated numerically…
The spreading of infectious diseases with and without immunization of individuals can be modeled by stochastic processes that exhibit a transition between an active phase of epidemic spreading and an absorbing phase, where the disease dies…
To examine the co-evolution of quantitative traits in hosts and parasites, we present and study a co-evolutionary model of a social parasite-host system that incorporates (1) ecological dynamics that feed back into their co-evolutionary…
We consider the class of SIS epidemic models in which a large population of individuals chooses whether to adopt protection or to remain unprotected as the epidemic evolves. For a susceptible individual, adopting protection reduces the…
Self-adaptive dynamics occurs in many physical systems such as socio-economics, neuroscience, or biophysics. We formalize a self-adaptive modeling approach, where adaptation takes place within a set of strategies based on the history of the…
Models are often employed to integrate knowledge about epidemics across scales and simulate disease dynamics. While these approaches have played a central role in studying the mechanics underlying epidemics, we lack ways to reliably predict…
We introduce and analyze coupled, multi-strain epidemic models designed to simulate the emergence and dissemination of mutant (e.g. drug-resistant) pathogen strains. In particular, we investigate the mathematical and biological properties…
Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements,…
The spread of infectious diseases, rumors, fashions, innovations are complex contagion processes, embedded both in networked and spatial contexts. Here we investigate the pattern dynamics of a complex contagion, where two agents, say $A$…
Consider the following stochastic model for immune response. Each pathogen gives birth to a new pathogen at rate $\lambda$. When a new pathogen is born, it has the same type as its parent with probability $1 - r$. With probability $r$, a…
Within the germinal center in follicles, B-cells proliferate, mutate and differentiate, while being submitted to a powerful selection~: a micro-evolutionary mechanism at the heart of adaptive immunity. A new foreign pathogen is confronted…
Biological evolution of a population is governed by the fitness landscape, which is a map from genotype to fitness. However, a fitness landscape depends on the organisms environment, and evolution in changing environments is still poorly…
Among various possible causes of autoimmune disease, an important role is played by infections that can result in a breakdown of immune tolerance, primarily through the mechanism of "molecular mimicry". In this paper we propose and analyse…
In this work we have investigated the evolutionary dynamics of a generalist pathogen, e.g. a virus population, that evolves towards specialisation in an environment with multiple host types. We have particularly explored under which…