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Many applications in signal processing require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. More specifically, Bayesian inference needs the computation of {\it a-posteriori} estimators which are often…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 Luca Martino

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a class of algorithms for drawing Markovian samples from high-dimensional target densities to approximate the numerical integration associated with computing statistical expectation, especially in Bayesian…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-28 Khoa T. Tran

In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-25 Fabian Krüger , Sebastian Lerch , Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir , Tilmann Gneiting

Many real-world problems require one to estimate parameters of interest, in a Bayesian framework, from data that are collected sequentially in time. Conventional methods for sampling from posterior distributions, such as {Markov Chain Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-25 Jiangqi Wu , Linjie Wen , Peter L Green , Jinglai Li , Simon Maskell

This paper presents an improved implicit sampling method for hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems. A widely used approach for sampling posterior distribution is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, the samples generated by…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-11-27 Xiaoyan Song , Lijian Jiang , Guanghui Zheng

The development of statistical methods and numerical algorithms for model choice is vital to many real-world applications. In practice, the ABC approach can be instrumental for sequential model design; however, the theoretical basis of its…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-30 Oliver Ratmann , Pierre Pudlo , Sylvia Richardson , Christian Robert

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-19 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are frequently used to perform inference under a Bayesian modeling framework. Convergence diagnostics, such as traceplots, the Gelman-Rubin potential scale reduction factor, and effective sample…

Rich data generating mechanisms are ubiquitous in this age of information and require complex statistical models to draw meaningful inference. While Bayesian analysis has seen enormous development in the last 30 years, benefitting from the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-20 Radu V. Craiu , Evgeny Levi

The configuration model is a standard tool for uniformly generating random graphs with a specified degree sequence, and is often used as a null model to evaluate how much of an observed network's structure can be explained by its degree…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Upasana Dutta , Bailey K. Fosdick , Aaron Clauset

We develop a new method to sample from posterior distributions in hierarchical models without using Markov chain Monte Carlo. This method, which is a variant of importance sampling ideas, is generally applicable to high-dimensional models…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-19 Michael Braun , Paul Damien

Phylogenetic analyses which include fossils or molecular sequences that are sampled through time require models that allow one sample to be a direct ancestor of another sample. As previously available phylogenetic inference tools assume…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-12-08 Alexandra Gavryushkina , David Welch , Tanja Stadler , Alexei Drummond

We introduce and analyze a waiting time model for the accumulation of genetic changes. The continuous time conjunctive Bayesian network is defined by a partially ordered set of mutations and by the rate of fixation of each mutation. The…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-09-18 Niko Beerenwinkel , Seth Sullivant

In this paper we consider fully Bayesian inference in general state space models. Existing particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms use an augmented model that takes into account all the variable sampled in a sequential Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-31 Christopher K. Carter , Eduardo F. Mendes , Robert Kohn

Monte Carlo methods are essential tools for Bayesian inference. Gibbs sampling is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, extensively used in signal processing, machine learning, and statistics, employed to draw samples from…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-21 Luca Martino , Victor Elvira , Gustau Camps-Valls

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-30 Eduardo F. Mendes , Christopher K. Carter , David Gunawan , Robert Kohn

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have become powerful tools for Bayesian inference. However, they do not scale well to large-data problems. Divide-and-conquer strategies, which split the data into batches and, for each batch, run…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-18 Christopher Nemeth , Chris Sherlock

In Bayesian phylogenetics, our goal is to estimate the posterior distribution over phylogenetic trees. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are widely used to approximate the phylogenetic posterior distributions. For large-scale sequence data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Wentao Yu , Shijia Wang

Many machine learning applications require operating on a spatially distributed dataset. Despite technological advances, privacy considerations and communication constraints may prevent gathering the entire dataset in a central unit. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-30 Alexandros E. Tzikas , Licio Romao , Mert Pilanci , Alessandro Abate , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2020-03-10 Joshua S. Speagle