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We introduce a model for the loss distribution of a credit portfolio considering a contagion mechanism for the default of names which is the result of two independent components: an infection attempt generated by defaulting entities and a…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-22 Gabriele Torri , Rosella Giacometti , Gianluca Farina

Epidemics occur in all shapes and forms: infections propagating in our sparse sexual networks, rumours and diseases spreading through our much denser social interactions, or viruses circulating on the Internet. With the advent of large…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-09-02 Laurent Hébert-Dufresne , Antoine Allard , Jean-Gabriel Young , Louis J. Dubé

In the face of serious infectious diseases, governments endeavour to implement containment measures such as public vaccination at a macroscopic level. Meanwhile, individuals tend to protect themselves by avoiding contacts with infections at…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-10-20 Xiao-Long Peng , Xin-Jian Xu , Michael Small , Xinchu Fu , Zhen Jin

Opposition to vaccination has long been a non-negligible public health phenomenon resulted from people's varied perceptions toward vaccination (e.g., vaccine-phobia). This paper investigates the voluntary vaccination behavior of a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-09-04 Liqun Lu , Yanfeng Ouyang

Infectious diseases pose major public health challenges to society, highlighting the importance of designing effective policies to reduce economic loss and mortality. In this paper, we propose a framework for sequential decision-making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Zhuangzhuang Jia , Hyuk Park , Gökçe Dayanıklı , Grani A. Hanasusanto

In this work we propose and investigate a new strategy of vaccination, which we call "dynamic vaccination". In our model, susceptible people become aware that one or more of their contacts are infected, and thereby get vaccinated with…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-01-09 L. G. Alvarez-Zuzek , M. A. Di Muro , S. Havlin , L. A. Braunstein

Despite achieving strong performance in semi-supervised node classification task, graph neural networks (GNNs) are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, similar to other deep learning models. Existing researches focus on developing either…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-26 Shuchang Tao , Huawei Shen , Qi Cao , Liang Hou , Xueqi Cheng

Groups of enterprises can serve as guarantees for one another and form complex networks when obtaining loans from commercial banks. During economic slowdowns, corporate default may spread like a virus and lead to large-scale defaults or…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-01 Zhibin Niu , Runlin Li , Junqi Wu , Dawei Cheng , Jiawan Zhang

In this study, we explore the dynamic interplay between the timing of vaccination campaigns and the trajectory of disease spread in a population. Through comprehensive data analysis and modeling, we have uncovered a counter-intuitive…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-12-06 Piergiorgio Castioni , Sergio Gòmez , Clara Granell , Alex Arenas

Financial markets are exposed to systemic risk, the risk that a substantial fraction of the system ceases to function and collapses. Systemic risk can propagate through different mechanisms and channels of contagion. One important form of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-02-02 Sebastian Poledna , Serafín Martínez-Jaramillo , Fabio Caccioli , Stefan Thurner

In this work we introduce a model of default contagion that combines the approaches of Eisenberg-Noe interbank networks and dynamic mean field interactions. The proposed contagion mechanism provides an endogenous rule for early defaults in…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-12-19 Zachary Feinstein , Andreas Sojmark

Understanding the epidemic dynamics, and finding out efficient techniques to control it, is a challenging issue. A lot of research has been done on targeted immunization strategies, exploiting various global network topological properties.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-01-21 Naveen Gupta , Anurag Singh , Hocine Cherifi

Consider the causal effect that one individual's treatment may have on another individual's outcome when the outcome is contagious, with specific application to the effect of vaccination on an infectious disease outcome. The effect of one…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-06 Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Tyler J. VanderWeele

We study the incentives that agents have to invest in costly protection against cascading failures in networked systems. Applications include vaccination, computer security and airport security. Agents are connected through a network and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-06-06 Matt V. Leduc , Ruslan Momot

We consider the problem of distributing a vaccine for immunizing a scale-free network against a given virus or worm. We introduce a new method, based on vaccine dissemination, that seems to reflect more accurately what is expected to occur…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Alexandre O. Stauffer , Valmir C. Barbosa

Interbank contagion can theoretically exacerbate losses in a financial system and lead to additional cascade defaults during downturn. In this paper we produce default analysis using both regression and neural network models to verify…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-29 Riccardo Doyle

Measurement and management of credit concentration risk is critical for banks and relevant for micro-prudential requirements. While several methods exist for measuring credit concentration risk within institutions, the systemic effect of…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-09 Davide Cellai , Trevor Fitzpatrick

We present an approach to mitigating the risks of malicious image editing posed by large diffusion models. The key idea is to immunize images so as to make them resistant to manipulation by these models. This immunization relies on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-14 Hadi Salman , Alaa Khaddaj , Guillaume Leclerc , Andrew Ilyas , Aleksander Madry

We consider a model of financial contagion in a bipartite network of assets and banks recently introduced in the literature, and we study the effect of power law distributions of degree and balance-sheet size on the stability of the system.…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-25 Opeoluwa Banwo , Fabio Caccioli , Paul Harrald , Francesca Medda

We consider the effect of inducement to vaccinate during the spread of an infectious disease on complex networks. Suppose that public resources are finite and that only a small proportion of individuals can be vaccinated freely (complete…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-03-30 Hai-Feng Zhang , Pan-Pan Shu , Ming Tang , Michael Small