Related papers: Nonlinear Time Series Modeling: A Unified Perspect…
In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the properties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly start…
We present two related anytime algorithms for control of nonlinear systems when the processing resources available are time-varying. The basic idea is to calculate tentative control input sequences for as many time steps into the future as…
In this note, a novel methodology that can extract a number of analysis results for linear time-invariant systems (LTI) given only a single trajectory of the considered system is proposed. The superiority of the proposed technique relies on…
Non-stationary systems are found throughout the world, from climate patterns under the influence of variation in carbon dioxide concentration, to brain dynamics driven by ascending neuromodulation. Accordingly, there is a need for methods…
Trend-following strategies underpin many systematic trading approaches yet struggle under nonstationary and nonlinear market regimes. We propose an LSTM-based framework to forecast next-day trend differences ($\Delta_t$) for the top 30 S\&P…
In this paper, we propose a fast, well-performing, and consistent method for segmenting a piecewise-stationary, linear time series with an unknown number of breakpoints. The time series model we use is the nonparametric Locally Stationary…
We consider the problem of static Bayesian inference for partially observed Levy-process models. We develop a methodology which allows one to infer static parameters and some states of the process, without a bias from the…
We study partially linear models when the outcome of interest and some of the covariates are observed in two different datasets that cannot be linked. This type of data combination problem arises very frequently in empirical microeconomics.…
Linear Dynamical System (LDS) is an elegant mathematical framework for modeling and learning multivariate time series. However, in general, it is difficult to set the dimension of its hidden state space. A small number of hidden states may…
This work presents a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network for forecasting a monthly electricity demand time series with a one-year horizon. The novelty of this work is the use of pattern representation of the seasonal time series as an…
Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these…
We study nonstationary generalized linear bandits (GLBs), where the expected reward is modeled through a nonlinear link function with an unknown time-varying parameter. This framework encompasses a broad class of reward models, including…
Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for…
We apply methods from randomized numerical linear algebra (RandNLA) to develop improved algorithms for the analysis of large-scale time series data. We first develop a new fast algorithm to estimate the leverage scores of an autoregressive…
A defining feature of non-stationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for…
This paper proposes a new sampling-based nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) algorithm, with a bound on complexity quadratic in the prediction horizon N and linear in the number of samples. The idea of the proposed algorithm is to use…
Recently, several studies proposed non-linear transformations, such as a logarithmic or Gaussianization transformation, as efficient tools to recapture information about the (Gaussian) initial conditions. During non-linear evolution, part…
An empirical algorithm is used here to study the stochastic and multifractal nature of nonlinear time series. A parameter can be defined to quantitatively measure the deviation of the time series from a Wiener process so that the…
We consider a dynamic method, based on synchronization and adaptive control, to estimate unknown parameters of a nonlinear dynamical system from a given scalar chaotic time series. We present an important extension of the method when time…
With the advent of Big Data, nowadays in many applications databases containing large quantities of similar time series are available. Forecasting time series in these domains with traditional univariate forecasting procedures leaves great…