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This paper reviews recent developments in fundamental limits and optimal algorithms for change point analysis. We focus on minimax optimal rates in change point detection and localisation, in both parametric and nonparametric models. We…
We propose a numerical method to evaluate the performance of the emerging Generalized Shiryaev--Roberts (GSR) change-point detection procedure in a "minimax-ish" multi-cyclic setup where the procedure of choice is applied repetitively…
This paper develops a new multivariate control charting method for vector autocorrelated and serially correlated processes. The main idea is to propose a Bayesian multivariate local level model, which is a generalization of the…
Over the years, the most popularly used control chart for statistical process control has been Shewhart's $\bar{X}-S$ or $\bar{X}-R$ chart along with its multivariate generalizations. But, such control charts suffer from the lack of…
In this work we develop a new algorithm for regularized empirical risk minimization. Our method extends recent techniques of Shalev-Shwartz [02/2015], which enable a dual-free analysis of SDCA, to arbitrary mini-batching schemes. Moreover,…
Weight averaging has become a standard technique for enhancing model performance. However, methods such as Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA) and Latest Weight Averaging (LAWA) often require manually designed procedures to sample from the…
We consider the problem of quickest change-point detection where the observations form a first-order autoregressive (AR) process driven by temporally independent standard Gaussian noise. Subject to possible change are both the drift of the…
This paper proposes maximum (quasi)likelihood estimation for high dimensional factor models with regime switching in the loadings. The model parameters are estimated jointly by the EM (expectation maximization) algorithm, which in the…
In this work, we study the performance of two-sided EWMA charts for monitoring double bounded processes using individual observations. Specifically, the term double bounded refers to observations in the interval (0, 1) and thus, these…
This article deals with parameterisation, identifiability, and maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of possibly non-invertible structural vector autoregressive moving average (SVARMA) models driven by independent and non-Gaussian shocks. In…
While standard estimation assumes that all datapoints are from probability distribution of the same fixed parameters $\theta$, we will focus on maximum likelihood (ML) adaptive estimation for nonstationary time series: separately estimating…
In this paper, the problem of quickly detecting an abrupt change on a stochastic process under Bayesian framework is considered. Different from the classic Bayesian quickest change-point detection problem, this paper considers the case…
Forecasting revenues by aggregating analyst forecasts is a fundamental problem in financial research and practice. A key objective in this context is to improve the accuracy of the forecast by optimizing two performance metrics: the hit…
We study change point detection and localization for univariate data in fully nonparametric settings in which, at each time point, we acquire an i.i.d. sample from an unknown distribution. We quantify the magnitude of the distributional…
For the problem of sequential detection of changes, we adopt the probability maximizing approach in place of the classical minimization of the average detection delay, and propose modified versions of the Shiryaev, Lorden and Pollak…
We study the selection of covariate adjustment sets for estimating the value of point exposure dynamic policies, also known as dynamic treatment regimes, assuming a non-parametric causal graphical model with hidden variables, in which at…
The Exponentially Weighted Average (EWA) of observations is known to be state-of-art estimator for tracking expectations of dynamically varying data stream distributions. However, how to devise an EWA estimator to rather track quantiles of…
Position-controlled systems driving repetitive tasks are of significant importance in industrial machinery. The electric actuators used in these systems are responsible for a large part of the global energy consumption, indicating that…
In this paper we give a solution to the quickest drift change detection problem for a multivariate L\'evy process consisting of both continuous (Gaussian) and jump components in the Bayesian approach. We do it for a general 0-modified…
This paper deals with the problem of asymptotically optimal detection of changes in regime-switching stochastic models. We need to divide the whole obtained sample of data into several sub-samples with observations belonging to different…