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Normalizing flows are a flexible class of probability distributions, expressed as transformations of a simple base distribution. A limitation of standard normalizing flows is representing distributions with heavy tails, which arise in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-13 Tennessee Hickling , Dennis Prangle

We study anomalous transport arising in disordered one-dimensional spin chains, specifically focusing on the subdiffusive transport typically found in a phase preceding the many-body localization transition. Different types of transport can…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2020-03-09 Maximilian Schulz , Scott R. Taylor , Antonello Scardicchio , Marko Žnidarič

We show that the quotient of Levy processes of jump-diffusion type has a fat-tailed distribution. An application is to price theory in economics. We show that fat tails arise endogenously from modeling of price change based on an excess…

General Economics · Economics 2021-03-11 Gunduz Caginalp

Understanding the tail behavior of distributions is crucial in statistical theory. For instance, the tail of a distribution plays a ubiquitous role in extreme value statistics, where it is associated with the likelihood of extreme events.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-11 Rafael Cabral , Maria de Iorio , Andrea Cremaschi

We propose a stochastic process driven by the memory effect with novel distributions which include both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of the distributions is analytically derived from the continuum limit of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-27 Jongwook Kim , Teppei Okumura

The aim of the paper is to show that the presence of one possible type of outliers is not connected to that of heavy tails of the distribution. In contrary, typical situation for outliers appearance is the case of compact supported…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-25 Lev B. Klebanov , Irina Volchenkova

Animal behavior is shaped by a myriad of mechanisms acting on a wide range of scales, which hampers quantitative reasoning and the identification of general principles. Here, we combine data analysis and theory to investigate the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-04-25 Antonio Carlos Costa , Gautam Sridhar , Claire Wyart , Massimo Vergassola

Heavy-tailed phenomena appear across diverse domains --from wealth and firm sizes in economics to network traffic, biological systems, and physical processes-- characterized by the disproportionate influence of extreme values. These…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-10 Hamidreza Maleki Almani

This is an epistemological approach to errors in both inference and risk management, leading to necessary structural properties for the probability distribution. Many mechanisms have been used to show the emergence of fat tails. Here we…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-16 Nassim Nicholas Taleb , Pasquale Cirillo

We demonstrate that distributions of human response times have power-law tails and, among closed-form distributions, are best fit by the generalized inverse gamma distribution. We speculate that the task difficulty tracks the half-width of…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2013-05-29 Tao Ma , John G. Holden , R. A. Serota

(The third edition corrects minor typos and adds 3 chapters synthesized from published papers plus an appendix on maximum entropy distributions.) The monograph investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2025-09-18 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Long tails and streams of stars are the most noticeable upshots of galaxy collisions. Their origin as gravitational, tidal, disturbances has however been recognized only less than fifty years ago and more than ten years after their first…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-03 Pierre-Alain Duc , Florent Renaud

Statistical distributions with heavy tails are ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena. Since the entries in heavy tail have disproportional significance, the knowledge of its exact shape is very important. Citations of scientific papers…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-05 Michael Golosovsky , Sorin Solomon

We study the long-time behavior of the probability density associated with the decoupled continuous-time random walk which is characterized by a superheavy-tailed distribution of waiting times. It is shown that if the random walk is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-05-02 S. I. Denisov , H. Kantz

Let F be a distribution function with negative mean and regularly varying right tail. Under a mild smoothness condition we derive higher order asymptotic expansions for the tail distribution of the maxima of the random walk generated by F.…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ph . Barbe , W. P. McCormick , C. Zhang

We propose a stochastic process driven by memory effect with novel distributions including both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of distribution is analytically derived from the continuum limit of the discrete…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-05-14 Jongwook Kim , Gabjin Oh

The normal distribution and its perturbation has left an immense mark on the statistical literature. Hence, several generalized forms were developed to model different skewness, kurtosis, and body shapes. However, it is not easy to…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-10 Matthias Wagener , Mohammad Arashi

We discuss the quenched tail estimates for the random walk in random scenery. The random walk is the symmetric nearest neighbor walk and the random scenery is assumed to be independent and identically distributed, non-negative, and has a…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-27 Jean-Dominique Deuschel , Ryoki Fukushima

Fat tailed statistics and power-laws are ubiquitous in many complex systems. Usually the appearance of of a few anomalously successful individuals (bio-species, investors, websites) is interpreted as reflecting some inherent "quality"…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-20 Yosef E. Maruvka , David A. Kessler , Nadav M. Shnerb

We propose a simple data model inspired from natural data such as text or images, and use it to study the importance of learning features in order to achieve good generalization. Our data model follows a long-tailed distribution in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-02 Thomas Laurent , James H. von Brecht , Xavier Bresson