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This paper presents a comparative analysis of univariate and multivariate GARCH-family models and machine learning algorithms in modeling and forecasting the volatility of major energy commodities: crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-31 Seulki Chung

Volatility clustering and spillovers are key features of real-world financial time series when there are a lot of cross-sectional financial assets. While network analysis helps connect stocks that are 'similar' or 'correlated', which is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-22 Peiyi Zhou

The passing of time is an important factor for covariates in the additive and proportional hazard models. According to this idea, the extended additive hazard model (EAHM) is introduced by considering the time-varying effects of covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-30 Morteza Raeisi , Gholamhossein Yari

In this article, we review and discuss different aspects of stability and genericity of some properties of space-times which occur in various contexts in the General Theory of Relativity. We also give argument supporting the conclusion that…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2016-12-30 R. V. Saraykar

The aim of this paper is to provide conditions which ensure that the affinely transformed partial sums of a strictly stationary process converge in distribution to an infinite variance stable distribution. Conditions for this convergence to…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-10-20 Katarzyna Bartkiewicz , Adam Jakubowski , Thomas Mikosch , Olivier Wintenberger

Markov Chain Monte Carlo is repeatedly used to analyze the properties of intractable distributions in a convenient way. In this paper we derive conditions for geometric ergodicity of a general class of nonparametric stochastic volatility…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-12-09 Jerzy P. Rydlewski , Małgorzata Snarska

The Random Geometric Graph (RGG) is a random graph model for network data with an underlying spatial representation. Geometry endows RGGs with a rich dependence structure and often leads to desirable properties of real-world networks such…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-08-25 Quentin Duchemin , Yohann de Castro

We introduce the concept of geometric extremal graphical models, which are defined through the gauge function of the limit set obtained from suitably scaled random vectors in light-tailed margins. For block graphs, we prove results relating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-05 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jennifer Wadsworth

This paper generalizes asymptotic properties obtained in the observation-driven times series models considered by \cite{dou:kou:mou:2013} in the sense that the conditional law of each observation is also permitted to depend on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-08 Randal Douc , François Roueff , Tepmony Sim

The paper is mainly devoted to systematic developments and applications of geometric aspects of second-order variational analysis that are revolved around the concept of parabolic regularity of sets. This concept has been known in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-06-17 Ashkan Mohammadi , Boris S. Mordukhovich , M. Ebrahim Sarabi

In this paper, we propose an Adaptive Realized Hyperbolic GARCH (A-Realized HYGARCH) process to model the long memory of high-frequency time series with possible structural breaks. The structural change is modeled by allowing the intercept…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-03 El Hadji Mamadou Sall , El Hadji Deme , Abdou Kâ Diongue

When modelling driven steady states of matter, it is common practice either to choose transition rates arbitrarily, or to assume that the principle of detailed balance remains valid away from equilibrium. Neither of those practices is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 R. M. L. Evans

Recent work in graph models has found that probabilistic hyperedge replacement grammars (HRGs) can be extracted from graphs and used to generate new random graphs with graph properties and substructures close to the original. In this paper,…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-06-22 Xinyi Wang , Salvador Aguinaga , Tim Weninger , David Chiang

We investigate the properties of a continuous time GARCH process as the solution to a L\'evy driven stochastic functional integral equation. This process occurs as a weak limit of a sequence of discrete time GARCH processes as the time…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-04-25 Adam Nie

A generalization of the random geometric graph (RGG) model is proposed by considering a set of points uniformly and independently distributed on a rectangle of unit area instead of on a unit square [0,1]^2. The topological properties of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-20 Ernesto Estrada , Matthew Sheerin

We define a four-parameter extended Rayleigh distribution, and obtain several mathematical properties including a stochastic representation. We construct a regression from the new distribution. The estimation is done by maximum likelihood.…

Non-stationary extremal dependence, whereby the relationship between the extremes of multiple variables evolves over time, is commonly observed in many environmental and financial data sets. However, most multivariate extreme value models…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-29 C. J. R. Murphy-Barltrop , J. L. Wadsworth , M. de Carvalho , B. D. Youngman

Graphical models in extremes have emerged as a diverse and quickly expanding research area in extremal dependence modeling. They allow for parsimonious statistical methodology and are particularly suited for enforcing sparsity in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-06 Sebastian Engelke , Manuel Hentschel , Michaël Lalancette , Frank Röttger

In this article, we provide the appendix for Lifelong Generative Modelling Using Dynamic Expansion Graph Model. This appendix includes additional visual results as well as the numerical results on the challenging datasets. In addition, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-28 Fei Ye , Adrian G. Bors

Exponential family Random Graph Models (ERGMs) can be viewed as expressing a probability distribution on graphs arising from the action of competing social forces that make ties more or less likely, depending on the state of the rest of the…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2019-08-27 Yue Yu , Gianmarc Grazioli , Nolan E. Phillips , Carter T. Butts
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