Related papers: Approximation of high quantiles from intermediate …
Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…
In this paper, I present a completely new type of upper and lower bounds on the right-tail probabilities of continuous random variables with unbounded support and with semi-bounded support from the left. The presented upper and lower…
We propose an extension of the regular Cox's proportional hazards model which allows the estimation of the probabilities of rare events. It is known that when the data are heavily censored at the upper end of the survival distribution, the…
We develop a new probabilistic and geometric method to obtain several sharp results pertaining to the upper tail behavior of continuum Gibbs measures on infinite ensembles of random continuous curves, also known as line ensembles,…
Modelling excesses over a high threshold using the Pareto or generalized Pareto distribution (PD/GPD) is the most popular approach in extreme value statistics. This method typically requires high thresholds in order for the (G)PD to fit…
We present an estimate of the Wasserstein distance between the data distribution and the generation of score-based generative models. The sampling complexity with respect to dimension is $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{d})$, with a logarithmic constant.…
We study the lower tail large deviation problem for subgraph counts in a random graph. Let $X_H$ denote the number of copies of $H$ in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$. We are interested in estimating the lower tail…
Likelihood-based procedures are a common way to estimate tail dependence parameters. They are not applicable, however, in non-differentiable models such as those arising from recent max-linear structural equation models. Moreover, they can…
We propose a semiparametric method for fitting the tail of a heavy-tailed population given a relatively small sample from that population and a larger sample from a related background population. We model the tail of the small sample as an…
In this paper, we discuss the convergence rate of empirical processes of Gaussian processes for a large class of function families. Our main goal is to show that the tail of the uniform norm of the empirical processes can be dominated by…
We establish new tail estimates for order statistics and for the Euclidean norms of projections of an isotropic log-concave random vector. More generally, we prove tail estimates for the norms of projections of sums of independent…
We explore the use of higher-order tail area approximations for Bayesian simulation. These approximations give rise to an alternative simulation scheme to MCMC for Bayesian computation of marginal posterior distributions for a scalar…
We provide a generalisation of Pinelis' Rademacher-Gaussian tail comparison to complex coefficients. We also establish uniform bounds on the probability that the magnitude of weighted sums of independent random vectors uniform on Euclidean…
We discuss the quenched tail estimates for the random walk in random scenery. The random walk is the symmetric nearest neighbor walk and the random scenery is assumed to be independent and identically distributed, non-negative, and has a…
This paper describes the construction of a lower bound for the tails of general random variables, using solely knowledge of their moment generating function. The tilting procedure used allows for the construction of lower bounds that are…
We study the complexity of heavy-tailed sampling and present a separation result in terms of obtaining high-accuracy versus low-accuracy guarantees i.e., samplers that require only $O(\log(1/\varepsilon))$ versus…
Let $\{\xi_n\}$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. In this paper we study the comparison for two upper tail probabilities $\mathbb{P}\{\sum_{n=1}^{\infty}a_n|\xi_n|^p\geq r\}$ and…
A tail empirical process for heavy-tailed and right-censored data is introduced and its Gaussian approximation is established. In this context, a (weighted) new Hill-type estimator for positive extreme value index is proposed and its…
Estimation of the extreme value index under right censoring is a fundamental problem in extreme value theory, with important applications in finance, insurance, and reliability. Classical integral estimators for Pareto-type tails typically…
In this note we prove bounds on the upper and lower probability tails of sums of independent geometric or exponentially distributed random variables. We also prove negative results showing that our established tail bounds are asymptotically…