Related papers: A new class of large claim size distributions: Def…
The size that an epidemic can reach, measured in terms of the number of fatalities, is an extremely relevant quantity. It has been recently claimed [Cirillo & Taleb, Nature Physics 2020] that the size distribution of major epidemics in…
Insurance data can be asymmetric with heavy tails, causing inadequate adjustments of the usually applied models. To deal with this issue, hierarchical models for collective risk with heavy-tails of the claims distributions that take also…
We study a new class of so-called rational-infinitely (or quasi-infinitely) divisible probability laws on the real line. The characteristic functions of these distributions are ratios of the characteristic functions of classical infinitely…
We analyze the probability of ruin for the {\it scaled} classical Cram\'er-Lundberg (CL) risk process and the corresponding diffusion approximation. The scaling, introduced by Iglehart \cite{I1969} to the actuarial literature, amounts to…
We study rare events in the extreme value statistics of stochastic symmetric jump processes with power tails in the distributions of the jumps, using the big-jump principle. The principle states that in the presence of stochastic processes…
For a given one-dimensional random walk $\{S_n\}$ with a subexponential step-size distribution, we present a unifying theory to study the sequences $\{x_n\}$ for which $\mathsf{P}\{S_n>x\}\sim n\mathsf{P}\{S_1>x\}$ as $n\to\infty$ uniformly…
We propose a mean functional which exists for any probability distributions, and which characterizes the Pareto distribution within the set of distributions with finite left endpoint. This is in sharp contrast to the mean excess plot which…
In ruin theory, the net profit condition intuitively means that the incurred random claims on average do not occur more often than premiums are gained. The breach of the net profit condition causes guaranteed ruin in few but simple cases…
In this paper, according to a certain criterion, we divide the exponential distribution class into three subclasses. One of them is closely related to the regular-variation-tailed distribution class, so it is called the…
We consider a modulated process S which, conditional on a background process X, has independent increments. Assuming that S drifts to -infinity and that its increments (jumps) are heavy-tailed (in a sense made precise in the paper), we…
This paper investigates an insurance model with a finite number of major clients and a large number of small clients, where the dynamics of the latter group are modeled by a spectrally positive L\'evy process. We begin by analyzing this…
We consider the probability that a weighted sum of $n$ i.i.d. random variables $X_j$, $j = 1, . . ., n$, with stretched exponential tails is larger than its expectation and determine the rate of its decay, under suitable conditions on the…
Heavy-tailed distributions are found throughout many naturally occurring phenomena. We have reviewed the models of stochastic dynamics that lead to heavy-tailed distributions (and power law distributions, in particular) including the…
In this paper we determine bounds and exact asymptotics of the ruin probability for risk process with arrivals given by a linear marked Hawkes process. We consider the light-tailed and heavy-tailed case of the claim sizes. Main technique is…
The upper tail of a claim size distribution of a property line of business is frequently modelled by Pareto distribution. However, the upper tail does not need to be Pareto distributed, extraordinary shapes are possible. Here, the…
Given $n$ samples of a regular discrete distribution $\pi$, we prove in this article first a serial of SLLNs results (of Dvoretzky and Erd\"{o}s' type) which implies a typical power law when $\pi$ is heavy-tailed. Constructing a (random)…
In this paper we consider the problem of computing tail probabilities of the distribution of a random sum of positive random variables. We assume that the individual variables follow a reproducible natural exponential family (NEF)…
We introduce a simple model for the size distribution of avalanches based on the idea that the front of an avalanche can be described by a directed random walk. The model captures some of the qualitative features of earthquakes, avalanches…
Our work aims to study the tail behaviour of weighted sums of the form $\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} X_{i} \prod_{j=1}^{i}Y_{j}$, where $(X_{i}, Y_{i})$ are independent and identically distributed, with common joint distribution bivariate Sarmanov.…
There is accumulating evidence in the literature that stability of learning algorithms is a key characteristic that permits a learning algorithm to generalize. Despite various insightful results in this direction, there seems to be an…