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This paper presents a cross-country comparison of significant predictors of small business failure between Italy and the UK. Financial measures of profitability, leverage, coverage, liquidity, scale and non-financial information are…

Applications · Statistics 2014-12-18 Galina Andreeva , Raffaella Calabrese , Silvia Angela Osmetti

In recent years, bankruptcy forecasting has gained lot of attention from researchers as well as practitioners in the field of financial risk management. For bankruptcy prediction, various approaches proposed in the past and currently in…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-05 Amir Mukeri , Habibullah Shaikh , D. P. Gaikwad

Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are known to play a vital role in economic growth, employment, and innovation. However, they tend to face significant challenges in accessing credit due to limited financial histories, collateral…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-13 Sahab Zandi , Kamesh Korangi , Juan C. Moreno-Paredes , María Óskarsdóttir , Christophe Mues , Cristián Bravo

Predicting the bankruptcy risk of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is an important step for financial institutions when making decisions about loans. Existing studies in both finance and AI research fields, however, tend to only…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-10 Yu Zhao , Shaopeng Wei , Yu Guo , Qing Yang , Xingyan Chen , Qing Li , Fuzhen Zhuang , Ji Liu , Gang Kou

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) represent the majority of firms in most economies and often face financial constraints and higher vulnerability to financial distress. Predicting SME default is therefore crucial for financial…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Desirè Fabbretti , Matteo Pasquino , Elia Pacioni , Caterina Lucarelli , Davide Calvaresi

There has been intensive research regarding machine learning models for predicting bankruptcy in recent years. However, the lack of interpretability limits their growth and practical implementation. This study proposes a data-driven…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-03 Wei Li , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Stefan Lessmann

Academics and practitioners have studied over the years models for predicting firms bankruptcy, using statistical and machine-learning approaches. An earlier sign that a company has financial difficulties and may eventually bankrupt is…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-27 Tesi Aliaj , Aris Anagnostopoulos , Stefano Piersanti

Academic research and the financial industry have recently paid great attention to Machine Learning algorithms due to their power to solve complex learning tasks. In the field of firms' default prediction, however, the lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-02 Lisa Crosato , Caterina Liberati , Marco Repetto

Logistic regression model is widely used in many studies to investigate the relationship between a binary response variable $Y$ and a set of potential predictors $\mathbf X$. The binary response may represent, for example, the occurrence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Aba Diop , El Hadji Deme , Aliou Diop

In the information system research, a question of particular interest is to interpret and to predict the probability of a firm to adopt a new technology such that market promotions are targeted to only those firms that were more likely to…

Applications · Statistics 2011-01-10 Xia Wang , Dipak K. Dey

Compared to consumer lending, Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise (mSME) credit risk modelling is particularly challenging, as, often, the same sources of information are not available. Therefore, it is standard policy for a loan officer to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-09 Matthew Stevenson , Christophe Mues , Cristián Bravo

Models for bankruptcy prediction are useful in several real-world scenarios, and multiple research contributions have been devoted to the task, based on structured (numerical) as well as unstructured (textual) data. However, the lack of a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-08-25 Henri Arno , Klaas Mulier , Joke Baeck , Thomas Demeester

Bankruptcy is a legal procedure that claims a person or organization as a debtor. It is essential to ascertain the risk of bankruptcy at initial stages to prevent financial losses. In this perspective, different soft computing techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-02-13 Kalyan Nagaraj , Amulyashree Sridhar

Credit risk assessment of a company is commonly conducted by utilizing financial ratios that are derived from its financial statements. However, this approach may not fully encompass other significant aspects of a company. We propose the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-01-29 Xinlin Wang , Mats Brorsson

The soft-margin support vector machine (SVM) is a ubiquitous tool for prediction of binary-response data. However, the SVM is characterized entirely via a numerical optimization problem, rather than a probability model, and thus does not…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-24 Hien D Nguyen , Daniel V Fryer

This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-25 Laura Liu , Yulong Wang

Bankruptcy prediction is very important for all the organization since it affects the economy and rise many social problems with high costs. There are large number of techniques have been developed to predict the bankruptcy, which helps the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2011-03-11 A. Martin , V. Gayathri , G. Saranya , P. Gayathri , Prasanna Venkatesan

For the binary regression, the use of symmetrical link functions are not appropriate when we have evidence that the probability of success increases at a different rate than decreases. In these cases, the use of link functions based on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 João Victor B. de Freitas , Caio L. N. Azevedo

Valuing corporate bonds in systemic economies is challenging due to intricate webs of inter-institutional exposures. When a bank defaults, cascading losses propagate through the network, with payments determined by a system of fixed-point…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-16 Dohyun Ahn , Agostino Capponi

Accurate prediction of loan defaults is a central challenge in credit risk management, particularly in modern financial datasets characterised by nonlinear relationships, class imbalance, and evolving borrower behaviour. Traditional…

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