Related papers: The predictability of the Hirsch index evolution
Much artificial intelligence research focuses on the problem of deducing the validity of unobservable propositions or hypotheses from observable evidence.! Many of the knowledge representation techniques designed for this problem encode the…
The time dependence of the $h$-index is analyzed by considering the average behaviour of $h$ as a function of the academic age $A_A$ for about 1400 Italian physicists, with career lengths spanning from 3 to 46 years. The individual…
At what level does selective pressure effectively act? When considering the reproductive dynamics of interacting and mutating agents, it has long been debated whether selection is better understood by focusing on the individual or if…
The concept of hypocoercivity for linear evolution equations with dissipation is discussed and equivalent characterizations that were developed for the finite-dimensional case are extended to separable Hilbert spaces. Using the concept of a…
This paper is concerned with the construction of prior free posterior distributions which rely on the use of one step ahead predictive distribution functions. These are typically more straightforward to motivate than prior distributions.…
The most commonly used publication metrics for individual researchers are the the total number of publications, the total number of citations, and Hirsch's $h$-index. Each of these is cumulative, and hence increases throughout a…
Building on ideas from linguistics, psychology, and social sciences about the possible mechanisms of human decision-making, we propose a novel theoretical framework for the citation analysis. Given the existing trend to investigate citation…
Many astronomical surveys prompt follow-up observations, but the decision process through which candidates are selected for follow-up can be difficult to model. This poses a challenge when inferring properties of the intrinsic population of…
Indexes that account for good representations of an individual's productivity are theme of major importance for the evaluation and comparison among researchers. Recently, a new index was proposed combining productivity with impact such that…
The index of success of the researchers is now mostly measured using the Hirsch index ($h$). Our recent precise demonstration, that statistically $h \sim \sqrt {N_c} \sim \sqrt {N_p}$, where $N_p$ and $N_c$ denote respectively the total…
A model of scientific citation distribution is given. We apply it to understand the role of the Hirsch index as an indicator of scientific publication importance in Mathematics and some related fields. The proposed model is based on a…
Recent years have seen the development of many novel scoring tools for disease prognosis and prediction. To become accepted for use in clinical applications, these tools have to be validated on external data. In practice, validation is…
From the climate system to the effect of the internet on society, chaotic systems appear to have a significant role in our future. Here a method of statistical learning for a class of chaotic systems is described along with underlying…
One of the bottlenecks on the way towards recursively self-improving systems is the challenge of interestingness: the ability to prospectively identify which tasks or data hold the potential for future progress. We formalize interestingness…
To make informed decisions in natural environments that change over time, humans must update their beliefs as new observations are gathered. Studies exploring human inference as a dynamical process that unfolds in time have focused on…
We test 16 bibliometric indicators with respect to their validity at the level of the individual researcher by estimating their power to predict later successful researchers. We compare the indicators of a sample of astrophysics researchers…
Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to design efficient prediction algorithms for data sets with huge numbers of parameters. This paper describes a new technique for "hedging" the predictions output by many such algorithms,…
We study a system whose dynamics are governed by predictions of its future states. A general formalism and concrete examples are presented. We find that the dynamical characteristics depend on how to shape the predictions as well as on how…
A researcher collaborating with many groups will normally have more papers (and thus higher citations and $h$-index) than a researcher spending all his/her time working alone or in a small group. While analyzing an author's research merit,…
Prediction of events is the challenge in many different disciplines, from meteorology to finance; the more this task is difficult, the more a system is {\it complex}. Nevertheless, even according to this restricted definition, a general…