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Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

In indirect measurements, the measurand is determined by solving an inverse problem which requires a model of the measurement process. Such models are often approximations and introduce systematic errors leading to a bias of the posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-22 Maren Casfor , Philipp Trunschke , Sebastian Heidenreich , Nando Hegemann

In this work, a method for obtaining pixel-wise error bounds in Bayesian regularization of inverse imaging problems is introduced. The proposed method employs estimates of the posterior variance together with techniques from conformal…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-08-01 Dominik Narnhofer , Andreas Habring , Martin Holler , Thomas Pock

Many approximate Bayesian inference methods assume a particular parametric form for approximating the posterior distribution. A multivariate Gaussian distribution provides a convenient density for such approaches; examples include the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-20 Jackson Zhou , Clara Grazian , John Ormerod

We study the posterior distribution of the Bayesian multiple change-point regression problem when the number and the locations of the change-points are unknown. While it is relatively easy to apply the general theory to obtain the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-08-21 Heng Lian

In recent years, the literature in the area of Bayesian asymptotics has been rapidly growing. It is increasingly important to understand the concept of posterior consistency and validate specific Bayesian methods, in terms of consistency of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Taeryon Choi , R. V. Ramamoorthi

Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-29 Simón Rodríguez Santana , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-26 J G Liao , Arthur Berg , Timothy L McMurry

We consider Bayesian inference in inverse regression problems where the objective is to infer about unobserved covariates from observed responses and covariates. We establish posterior consistency of such unobserved covariates in Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

In the Bayesian approach, the a priori knowledge about the input of a mathematical model is described via a probability measure. The joint distribution of the unknown input and the data is then conditioned, using Bayes' formula, giving rise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-15 Sebastian J. Vollmer

When using complex Bayesian models to combine information, the checking for consistency of the information being combined is good statistical practice. Here a new method is developed for detecting prior-data conflicts in Bayesian models…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-29 David J. Nott , Xueou Wang , Michael Evans , Berthold-Georg Englert

This paper considers a Bayesian approach for inclusion detection in nonlinear inverse problems using two known and popular push-forward prior distributions: the star-shaped and level set prior distributions. We analyze the convergence of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-29 Babak Maboudi Afkham , Kim Knudsen , Aksel Kaastrup Rasmussen , Tanja Tarvainen

The aim of this paper is to discuss both higher-order asymptotic expansions and skewed approximations for the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure for testing precise statistical hypotheses. In particular, we derive results on third-order…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-02 Elena Bortolato , Francesco Bertolino , Monica Musio , Laura Ventura

In certain applications involving the solution of a Bayesian inverse problem, it may not be possible or desirable to evaluate the full posterior, e.g. due to the high computational cost of doing so. This problem motivates the use of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-27 Han Cheng Lie , T. J. Sullivan , Aretha Teckentrup

Current literature on posterior approximation for Bayesian inference offers many alternative methods. Does our chosen approximation scheme work well on the observed data? The best existing generic diagnostic tools treating this kind of…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-22 Hanwen Xing , Geoff K. Nicholls , Jeong Eun Lee

Full Bayesian posteriors are rarely analytically tractable, which is why real-world Bayesian inference heavily relies on approximate techniques. Approximations generally differ from the true posterior and require diagnostic tools to assess…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-08 Luca Rendsburg , Agustinus Kristiadi , Philipp Hennig , Ulrike von Luxburg

Bayesian inversion generates a posterior distribution of model parameters from an observation equation and prior information both weighted by hyperparameters. The prior is also introduced for the hyperparameters in fully Bayesian inversions…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-07-20 Dye SK Sato , Yukitoshi Fukahata , Yohei Nozue

We propose a Bayesian inference framework to estimate uncertainties in inverse scattering problems. Given the observed data, the forward model and their uncertainties, we find the posterior distribution over a finite parameter field…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-11-17 Ana Carpio , Sergei Iakunin , Georg Stadler

We study the use of Gaussian process emulators to approximate the parameter-to-observation map or the negative log-likelihood in Bayesian inverse problems. We prove error bounds on the Hellinger distance between the true posterior…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Andrew M. Stuart , Aretha L. Teckentrup

Bayesian decision theory provides an elegant framework for acting optimally under uncertainty when tractable posterior distributions are available. Modern Bayesian models, however, typically involve intractable posteriors that are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Meet P. Vadera , Soumya Ghosh , Kenney Ng , Benjamin M. Marlin
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