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This paper concerns numerical assessment of Monte Carlo error in particle filters. We show that by keeping track of certain key features of the genealogical structure arising from resampling operations, it is possible to estimate variances…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-29 Anthony Lee , Nick Whiteley

Particle filtering is a standard Monte-Carlo approach for a wide range of sequential inference tasks. The key component of a particle filter is a set of particles with importance weights that serve as a proxy of the true posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-02 Ruizhi Deng , Greg Mori , Andreas M. Lehrmann

We introduce a new sequential Monte Carlo algorithm we call the particle cascade. The particle cascade is an asynchronous, anytime alternative to traditional particle filtering algorithms. It uses no barrier synchronizations which leads to…

Computation · Statistics 2014-07-11 Brooks Paige , Frank Wood , Arnaud Doucet , Yee Whye Teh

We consider the numerical approximation of the filtering problem in high dimensions, that is, when the hidden state lies in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with $d$ large. For low dimensional problems, one of the most popular numerical procedures for…

Computation · Statistics 2014-12-12 Alex Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani , Yan Zhou

This paper discusses variance estimation in sequential Monte Carlo methods, alternatively termed particle filters. The variance estimator that we propose is a natural modification of that suggested by H. P. Chan and T. L. Lai [A general…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-05 Jimmy Olsson , Randal Douc

Particle filters (PFs) form a class of Monte Carlo algorithms that propagate over time a set of $N\geq 1$ particles which can be used to estimate, in an online fashion, the sequence of filtering distributions $(\hat{\eta}_t)_{t\geq 1}$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-28 Mathieu Gerber

A major challenge facing existing sequential Monte-Carlo methods for parameter estimation in physics stems from the inability of existing approaches to robustly deal with experiments that have different mechanisms that yield the results…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-09-13 Christopher Granade , Nathan Wiebe

Monte Carlo particle transport codes are well established on classical hardware and are considered as the reference tool for nuclear applications. In a growing number of domains, the design of algorithms is progressively shifting towards…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-10-28 Noé Olivier , Michel Nowak

Sequential Monte Carlo techniques are useful for state estimation in non-linear, non-Gaussian dynamic models. These methods allow us to approximate the joint posterior distribution using sequential importance sampling. In this framework,…

Computation · Statistics 2012-07-09 Mike Klaas , Nando de Freitas , Arnaud Doucet

Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms, or Particle Filters, are Bayesian filtering algorithms which propagate in time a discrete and random approximation of the a posteriori distribution of interest. Such algorithms are based on Importance…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-11 Roland Lamberti , Yohan Petetin , François Desbouvries , François Septier

The particle filter (PF), also known as sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), approximates high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants in the discrete-time setting. To reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-05 Jianfeng Lu , Yuliang Wang

Sequential Monte Carlo methods are typically not straightforward to implement on parallel architectures. This is because standard resampling schemes involve communication between all particles. The $\alpha$-sequential Monte Carlo method was…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-21 Deborshee Sen

Particle filters are broadly used to approximate posterior distributions of hidden states in state-space models by means of sets of weighted particles. While the convergence of the filter is guaranteed when the number of particles tends to…

Computation · Statistics 2017-11-01 Víctor Elvira , Joaquín Míguez , Petar M. Djurić

Particle filters provide Monte Carlo approximations of intractable quantities such as point-wise evaluations of the likelihood in state space models. In many scenarios, the interest lies in the comparison of these quantities as some…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-19 Pierre E. Jacob , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

Particle filter (PF) sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are very attractive for the estimation of parameters of time dependent systems where the data is either not all available at once, or the range of time constants is wide enough to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-25 Andrea Arnold , Daniela Calvetti , Erkki Somersalo

Increasing availability of vehicle GPS data has created potentially transformative opportunities for traffic management, route planning and other location-based services. Critical to the utility of the data is their accuracy. Map-matching…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-30 Kira Kempinska , Toby Davies , John Shawe-Taylor

This presentation will introduce the audience to a new, emerging body of research on sequential Monte Carlo techniques in robotics. In recent years, particle filters have solved several hard perceptual robotic problems. Early successes were…

Robotics · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Sebastian Thrun

Particle filters are a powerful and flexible tool for performing inference on state-space models. They involve a collection of samples evolving over time through a combination of sampling and re-sampling steps. The re-sampling step is…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-17 Deborshee Sen , Alexandre Thiery , Ajay Jasra

This is a short review of Monte Carlo methods for approximating filter distributions in state space models. The basic algorithm and different strategies to reduce imbalance of the weights are discussed. Finally, methods for more difficult…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-01 Hans R. Künsch

The implicit particle filter is a sequential Monte Carlo method for data assimilation that guides the particles to the high-probability regions via a sequence of steps that includes minimizations. We present a new and more general…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-02-01 Ethan Atkins , Matthias Morzfeld , Alexandre J. Chorin
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