Related papers: Importance sampling for jump processes and applica…
In the context of time-subordinated Brownian motion models, Fourier theory and methodology are proposed to modelling the stochastic distribution of time increments. Gaussian Variance-Mean mixtures and time-subordinated models are reviewed…
We propose a method for the accurate estimation of rare event or failure probabilities for expensive-to-evaluate numerical models in high dimensions. The proposed approach combines ideas from large deviation theory and adaptive importance…
We take a new look at the problem of disentangling the volatility and jumps processes of daily stock returns. We first provide a computational framework for the univariate stochastic volatility model with Poisson-driven jumps that offers a…
It is a well known fact that local scale invariance plays a fundamental role in the theory of derivative pricing. Specific applications of this principle have been used quite often under the name of `change of numeraire', but in recent work…
In this paper, we focus on multiple sampling problems for the estimation of the fractional Brownian motion when the maximum number of samples is limited, extending existing results in the literature in a non-Markovian framework. Two classes…
Importance sampling, which involves sampling from a probability density function (PDF) proportional to the product of an importance weight function and a base PDF, is a powerful technique with applications in variance reduction, biased or…
The non-gaussianity of processes observed in financial markets and relatively good performance of gaussian models can be reconciled by replacing the Brownian motion with Levy processes whose Levy densities decay as exp(-lambda|x|) or…
We introduce a theoretical and practical framework for efficient importance sampling of mini-batch samples for gradient estimation from single and multiple probability distributions. To handle noisy gradients, our framework dynamically…
We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for Gaussian approximations of intractable posteriors. Optimization-based approximations like variational inference can be too inaccurate while existing Monte Carlo methods can be too slow.…
Importance sampling is a well developed method in statistics. Given a random variable $X$, the problem of estimating its expected value $\mu$ is addressed. The standard approach is to use the sample mean as an estimator $\bar x$. In…
The measured time series from complex systems are renowned for their intricate stochastic behavior, characterized by random fluctuations stemming from external influences and nonlinear interactions. These fluctuations take diverse forms,…
Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…
We approximate the price of the American put for jump diffusions by a sequence of functions, which are computed iteratively. This sequence converges to the price function uniformly and exponentially fast. Each element of the approximating…
The purpose of the article is twofold. Firstly, we review some recent results on the maximum likelihood estimation in the regression model of the form $X_t = \theta G(t) + B_t$, where $B$ is a Gaussian process, $G(t)$ is a known function,…
In this paper, using an algorithm based on the retrospective rejection sampling scheme, we propose an exact simulation of a Brownian diffusion whose drift admits several jumps. We treat explicitly and extensively the case of two jumps,…
An innovative extension of Geometric Brownian Motion model is developed by incorporating a weighting factor and a stochastic function modelled as a mixture of power and trigonometric functions. Simulations based on this Modified Brownian…
Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient…
We present a method for computing parameter sensitivities and response coefficients in Brownian dynamics simulations. The method involves tracking auxiliary variables (Malliavin weights) in addition to the usual particle positions, in an…
Path integral techniques for the pricing of financial options are mostly based on models that can be recast in terms of a Fokker-Planck differential equation and that, consequently, neglect jumps and only describe drift and diffusion. We…
Recently developed particle flow algorithms provide an alternative to importance sampling for drawing particles from a posterior distribution, and a number of particle filters based on this principle have been proposed. Samples are drawn…