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Using a methodology similar to that used the in the worldwide research, the cost performance of Dutch large-scale transport infrastructure projects is determined. In the Netherlands, cost overruns are as common as cost underruns but because…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-01-27 Chantal C. Cantarelli , Eric J. E. Molin , Bert van Wee , Bent Flyvbjerg

This paper examines three independent explanatory variables and their relation with cost overrun in order to decide whether this is different for Dutch infrastructure projects compared to worldwide findings. The three independent variables…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-01-27 Chantal C. Cantarelli , Bert van Wee , Eric J. E. Molin , Bent Flyvbjerg

Lock-in, the escalating commitment of decision-makers to an ineffective course of action, has the potential to explain the large cost overruns in large scale transportation infrastructure projects. Lock-in can occur both at the…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-09 Chantal C. Cantarelli , Bent Flybjerg , Bert van Wee , Eric J. E. Molin

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$59…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-03-28 Bent Flyvbjerg , Mette Skamris Holm , Søren L. Buhl

Managing large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is difficult due to frequent misinformation about the costs which results in large cost overruns that often threaten the overall project viability. This paper investigates the…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-09 Chantal C. Cantarelli , Bent Flybjerg , Eric J. E. Molin , Bert van Wee

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of causes of cost escalation in transport infrastructure projects. The study is based on a sample of 258 rail, bridge, tunnel and road projects worth US$90…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-04-17 Bent Flyvbjerg , Mette K. Skamris Holm , Søren L. Buhl

Risk, including economic risk, is increasingly a concern for public policy and management. The possibility of dealing effectively with risk is hampered, however, by lack of a sound empirical basis for risk assessment and management. The…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-04-01 Bent Flyvbjerg

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-03-27 Bent Flyvbjerg , Mette K. Skamris Holm , Søren L. Buhl

Transporting hydrogen using pipelines is becoming increasingly relevant in the energy system, yet current cost estimates typically rely on simplistic approaches that overlook region-specific characteristics, leading to potential…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-05-05 Bastian Weißenburger , Lukas Karkossa , Annegret Stephan , Russell McKenna

Railway systems provide pivotal support to modern societies, making their efficiency and robustness important to ensure. However, these systems are susceptible to disruptions and delays, leading to accumulating economic damage. The large…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-10-28 Mark M. Dekker

In 2018 the ''Onderweg in Nederland'' (translation: the Dutch Travel Survey) project by Statistics Netherlands was commenced, where participants were asked to track their location using an app, and check if the data is correct. An issue…

The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-03-27 Bent Flyvbjerg

Strategic behaviour is one of the main explanations for cost overruns. It can theoretically be supported by agency theory, in which strategic behaviour is the result of asymmetric information between the principal and agent. This paper…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-09 Chantal C. Cantarelli , Caspar G. Chorus , Scott W. Cunningham

Performances of building energy innovations are most of the time dependent on the external climate conditions. This means a high performance of a specific innovation in a certain part of Europe, does not imply the same performances in other…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2013-08-23 A. W. M. van Schijndel

Subway systems span most large cities, and railway networks most countries in the world. These networks are fundamental in the development of countries and their cities, and it is therefore crucial to understand their formation and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-07-18 Rémi Louf , Camille Roth , Marc Barthelemy

The efficiency of urban logistics is vital for economic prosperity and quality of life in cities. However, rapid urbanization poses significant challenges, such as congestion, emissions, and strained infrastructure. This paper addresses…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-09-04 Nadia Pourmohammad-Zia , Mark van Koningsveld

A brisk building boom of hydropower mega-dams is underway from China to Brazil. Whether benefits of new dams will outweigh costs remains unresolved despite contentious debates. We investigate this question with the "outside view" or…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-09-02 Atif Ansar , Bent Flyvbjerg , Alexander Budzier , Daniel Lunn

Most cities in the US and in the world were organized around car traffic. In particular, large structures such as urban freeways or ring roads were built for reducing car traffic congestion. With the evolution of public transportation,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-03-29 Erwan Taillanter , Marc Barthelemy

This report was commissioned by the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Project to provide the national and international context in which the Muskrat Falls Project took place. The Commission asked for the report to cover…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-15 Bent Flyvbjerg , Alexander Budzier

We investigated the socioeconomic scaling behavior of all cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants in the Netherlands and found significant superlinear scaling of gross urban product with population size. Of these cities, 22 major cities…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-02-17 Anthony F. J. van Raan , Gerwin van der Meulen , Willem Goedhart
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