Related papers: Sensitivity Analysis in a Dengue Epidemiological M…
Detecting and preventing outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases such as Dengue and Zika in Brasil and other tropical regions has long been a priority for governments in affected areas. Streaming social media content, such as Twitter, is…
We consider the edge-based compartmental models for epidemic spread developed in Part I. We show conditions under which simpler models may be substituted for more detailed models, and in so doing we define a hierarchy of epidemic models. In…
We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number $\mathcal{R}(t)$. We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a…
The focus of this article is on the dynamics of a new susceptible-infected model which consists of a susceptible group ($S$) and two different infectious groups ($I_1$ and $I_2$). Once infected, an individual becomes a member of one of…
In this paper we study a susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model with asymptomatic patients, contact tracing and isolation on a configuration network. Using degree based approximation, we derive a system of differential equations for…
Dengue is a climate-sensitive mosquito-borne disease with a complex transmission dynamic. Data related to climate, environmental and sociodemographic characteristics of the target population are important for project scenarios. Different…
Threshold theorem is probably the most important development of mathematical epidemic modelling. Unfortunately, some models may not behave according to the threshold. In this paper, we will focus on the final outcome of SIR model with…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
Forecasting transmission of infectious diseases, especially for vector-borne diseases, poses unique challenges for researchers. Behaviors of and interactions between viruses, vectors, hosts, and the environment each play a part in…
This paper investigates a behavioral-feedback SIR model in which the infection rate adapts dynamically based on the fractions of susceptible and infected individuals. We introduce an invariant of motion and we characterize the peak of…
In this study, we develop a multi criteria model to identify dengue outbreak periods. To validate the model, we performed a simulation using dengue transmission-related data in Sri Lanka's Western Province. Our results indicated that the…
Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by…
This work examines the discrete-time networked SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model, where the infection and recovery parameters may be time-varying. We provide a sufficient condition for the SIR model to converge to the set…
Dengue virus transmission models commonly assume an exponential distribution for the mosquito extrinsic incubation period (EIP), potentially oversimplifying biological variability. We developed a stochastic mechanistic dengue transmission…
In this work we performed a numerical study of an epidemic model that mimics the endemic state of whooping cough in the pre-vaccine era. We considered a stochastic SIR model on dynamical networks that involve local and global contacts among…
We introduce a model for the evolution of sexually transmitted diseases, in which the social behavior is incorporated as a determinant factor for the further propagation of the infection. The system may be regarded as a society of agents…
Epidemic models are always simplifications of real world epidemics. Which real world features to include, and which simplifications to make, depend both on the disease of interest and on the purpose of the modelling. In the present paper we…
The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…
We consider in this paper a general SEIRS model describing the dynamics of an infectious disease including latency, waning immunity and infection-induced mortality. We derive an infinite system of differential equations that provides an…
In this paper, we propose a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, in which each node is assigned with an identical capability of active contacts, $A$, at each time step. In contrast to the previous studies, we find that on…