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Statistical inference in evolutionary models with site-dependence is a long-standing challenge in phylogenetics and computational biology. We consider the problem of approximating marginal sequence likelihoods under dependent-site models of…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-12 Joseph Mathews , Scott C. Schmidler

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are employed to sample from a given distribution of interest, whenever either the distribution does not exist in closed form, or, if it does, no efficient method to simulate an independent sample from…

Computation · Statistics 2008-07-22 Ioana A. Cosma , Masoud Asgharian

Multilevel Splitting is a Sequential Monte Carlo method to simulate realisations of a rare event as well as to estimate its probability. This article is concerned with the convergence and the fluctuation analysis of Adaptive Multilevel…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-21 Frederic Cerou , Arnaud Guyader

In a recent paper Beskos et al (2011), the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler introduced in Del Moral et al (2006), Neal (2001) has been shown to be asymptotically stable in the dimension of the state space d at a cost that is only…

Computation · Statistics 2011-12-08 Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nick Whiteley

We demonstrate the use of a variational method to determine a quantitative lower bound on the rate of convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms as a function of the target density and proposal density. The bound relies on…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-05-29 Fergal P. Casey , Joshua J. Waterfall , Ryan N. Gutenkunst , Christopher R. Myers , James P. Sethna

We propose a new class of learning algorithms that combines variational approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Naive algorithms that use the variational approximation as proposal distribution can perform poorly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Nando de Freitas , Pedro Hojen-Sorensen , Michael I. Jordan , Stuart Russell

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has gained popularity over the past few years for the analysis of complex models arising in population genetic, epidemiology and system biology. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approaches have become work…

Computation · Statistics 2012-10-16 Sarah Filippi , Chris Barnes , Julien Cornebise , Michael P. H. Stumpf

Sliding mode control (SMC) is a robust and computationally efficient solution for tracking control problems of highly nonlinear systems with a great deal of uncertainty. High frequency oscillations due to chattering phenomena and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-06-08 Mohammad Reza Amini , Mahdi Shahbakhti , Selina Pan , J. Karl Hedrick

Many recent advances in large scale probabilistic inference rely on variational methods. The success of variational approaches depends on (i) formulating a flexible parametric family of distributions, and (ii) optimizing the parameters to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-22 Christian A. Naesseth , Scott W. Linderman , Rajesh Ranganath , David M. Blei

Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-13 Richard G. Everitt , Dennis Prangle , Philip Maybank , Mark Bell

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are routinely used to draw samples from distributions with intractable normalization constants. However, standard MCMC algorithms do not apply to doubly-intractable distributions in which there are…

Computation · Statistics 2012-07-02 Iain Murray , Zoubin Ghahramani , David MacKay

We study the integration of functions with respect to an unknown density. We compare the simple Monte Carlo method (which is almost optimal for a certain large class of inputs) and compare it with the Metropolis algorithm (based on a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Peter Mathe , Erich Novak

Sliding mode control (SMC) is a robust and computationally efficient model-based controller design technique for highly nonlinear systems, in the presence of model and external uncertainties. However, the implementation of the conventional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-05-18 Mohammad Reza Amini , Mahdi Shahbakhti , Selina Pan

We present adaptive sequential SAA (sample average approximation) algorithms to solve large-scale two-stage stochastic linear programs. The iterative algorithm framework we propose is organized into \emph{outer} and \emph{inner} iterations…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-08 Raghu Pasupathy , Yongjia Song

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful method for drawing samples from non-standard probability distributions and is utilized across many fields and disciplines. Methods such as Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin (MALA) and Hamiltonian…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-28 Lee Devlin , Paul Horridge , Peter L. Green , Simon Maskell

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling algorithms are an extremely widely-used technique to estimate expectations of functions f(x), especially in high dimensions. Control variates are a very powerful technique to reduce the error of such estimates, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-08 Brendan D. Tracey , David H. Wolpert

We provide a comprehensive characterisation of the theoretical properties of the divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo (DaC-SMC) algorithm. We firmly establish it as a well-founded method by showing that it possesses the same basic…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 Juan Kuntz , Francesca R. Crucinio , Adam M. Johansen

We prove bounds on the variance of a function $f$ under the empirical measure of the samples obtained by the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm, with time complexity depending on local rather than global Markov chain mixing dynamics.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-18 Holden Lee , Matheau Santana-Gijzen

We propose a new Monte Carlo method for sampling from multimodal distributions. The idea of this technique is based on splitting the task into two: finding the modes of a target distribution $\pi$ and sampling, given the knowledge of the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-01-14 Emilia Pompe , Chris Holmes , Krzysztof Łatuszyński

Applying standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to large data sets is computationally expensive. Both the calculation of the acceptance probability and the creation of informed proposals usually require an iteration through the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-15 Yee Whye Teh , Alexandre Thiéry , Sebastian Vollmer
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