Related papers: Honest and adaptive confidence sets in Lp

In the nonparametric Gaussian sequence space model an $\ell^2$-confidence ball $C_n$ is constructed that adapts to unknown smoothness and Sobolev-norm of the infinite-dimensional parameter to be estimated. The confidence ball has exact and…

Adapting to a priori unknown noise level is a very important but challenging problem in sequential decision-making as efficient exploration typically requires knowledge of the noise level, which is often loosely specified. We report…

Conformal prediction (CP) is a general framework to quantify the predictive uncertainty of machine learning models that uses a set prediction to include the true label with a valid probability. To align the uncertainty measured by CP,…

We explore a novel methodology for constructing confidence regions for parameters of linear models, using predictions from any arbitrary predictor. Our framework requires minimal assumptions on the noise and can be extended to functions…

Conformal prediction (CP) can convert any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with any user-specified probability. However, same as the model itself, CP is vulnerable to adversarial test examples…

Conformal prediction delivers prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage, but its intervals can look overconfident in regions where the model is extrapolating, because standard conformal scores do not explicitly represent…

Robustness is a critical aspect of machine learning models. Existing robustness evaluation approaches often lack theoretical generality or rely heavily on empirical assessments, limiting insights into the structural factors contributing to…

In this paper we offer a unified approach to the problem of nonparametric regression on the unit interval. It is based on a universal, honest and non-asymptotic confidence region which is defined by a set of linear inequalities involving…

We consider the adaptive Lasso estimator with componentwise tuning in the framework of a low-dimensional linear regression model. In our setting, at least one of the components is penalized at the rate of consistent model selection and…

When one observes a sequence of variables $(x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n)$, Conformal Prediction (CP) is a methodology that allows to estimate a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ by merely assuming that the distribution of the…

In a sparse stochastic block model with two communities of unequal sizes we derive two posterior concentration inequalities, that imply (1) posterior (almost-)exact recovery of the community structure under sparsity bounds comparable to…

We develop a worst-case evaluation complexity bound for trust-region methods in the presence of unbounded Hessian approximations. We use the algorithm of arXiv:2103.15993v3 as a model, which is designed for nonsmooth regularized problems,…

We consider the problem of constructing honest confidence intervals (CIs) for a scalar parameter of interest, such as the regression discontinuity parameter, in nonparametric regression based on kernel or local polynomial estimators. To…

We consider the problem of fitting the parameters of a high-dimensional linear regression model. In the regime where the number of parameters $p$ is comparable to or exceeds the sample size $n$, a successful approach uses an…

Confidence intervals based on penalized maximum likelihood estimators such as the LASSO, adaptive LASSO, and hard-thresholding are analyzed. In the known-variance case, the finite-sample coverage properties of such intervals are determined…

For sparse high-dimensional regression problems, Cox and Battey [1, 9] emphasised the need for confidence sets of models: an enumeration of those small sets of variables that fit the data equivalently well in a suitable statistical sense.…

In this paper, we present a novel and effective inference approach to conduct both finite- and large-sample inference for high-dimensional linear regression models. This approach is developed under the so-called repro samples framework, in…

We propose methodology for estimation of sparse precision matrices and statistical inference for their low-dimensional parameters in a high-dimensional setting where the number of parameters $p$ can be much larger than the sample size. We…

Continual Learning (CL) is essential for enabling self-evolving large language models (LLMs) to adapt and remain effective amid rapid knowledge growth. Yet, despite its importance, little attention has been given to establishing statistical…

In this paper, we address the problem of estimating a multidimensional density $f$ by using indirect observations from the statistical model $Y=X+\varepsilon$. Here, $\varepsilon$ is a measurement error independent of the random vector $X$…