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An approximation method is presented for probabilistic inference with continuous random variables. These problems can arise in many practical problems, in particular where there are "second order" probabilities. The approximation, based on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-10 Ross D. Shachter

We propose an a posteriori error estimator for a sparse optimal control problem: the control variable lies in the space of regular Borel measures. We consider a solution technique that relies on the discretization of the control variable as…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-14 Francisco Fuica , Enrique Otarola , Abner J. Salgado

Maximum a posteriori and Bayes estimators are two common methods of point estimation in Bayesian Statistics. It is commonly accepted that maximum a posteriori estimators are a limiting case of Bayes estimators with 0-1 loss. In this paper,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-23 Robert Bassett , Julio Deride

Ensemble forecasting of nonlinear systems involves the use of a model to run forward a discrete ensemble (or set) of initial states. Data assimilation techniques tend to focus on estimating the true state of the system, even though model…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2012-07-19 Reason L. Machete , Irene M. Moroz

In this paper, we provide a method to recover off-the-grid frequencies of a signal in two-dimensional (2-D) line spectral estimation. Most of the literature in this field focuses on the case in which the only information is spectral…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-04-25 Iman Valiulahi , Hamid Fathi , Sajad Daei , Farzan Haddadi

Exponential random graph models are an important tool in the statistical analysis of data. However, Bayesian parameter estimation for these models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior distribution typically involves…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-05 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

In this paper, we derive closed-form estimators for the parameters of certain exponential family distributions through the maximum a posteriori (MAP) equations. A Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Roberto Vila , Helton Saulo , Eduardo Nakano

While circular data occur in a wide range of scientific fields, the methodology for distributional modeling and probabilistic forecasting of circular response variables is rather limited. Most of the existing methods are built on the…

We present a continuation method that entails generating a sequence of transition probability density functions from the prior to the posterior in the context of Bayesian inference for parameter estimation problems. The characterization of…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-27 Ben Mansour Dia

Periodicity analysis of unevenly collected data is a relevant issue in several scientific fields. In astrophysics, for example, we have to find the fundamental period of light or radial velocity curves which are unevenly sampled…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-10-31 R. Tagliaferri , A. Ciaramella , L. Milano , F. Barone , G. Longo

This paper proposes a new method of bandwidth selection in kernel estimation of density and distribution functions motivated by the connection between maximisation of the entropy of probability integral transforms and maximum likelihood in…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-14 Vitaliy Oryshchenko

In high-dimensional Bayesian statistics, various methods have been developed, including prior distributions that induce parameter sparsity to handle many parameters. Yet, these approaches often overlook the rich spectral structure of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-06 Tomoya Wakayama , Masaaki Imaizumi

Source separation is one of the signal processing's main emerging domain. Many techniques such as maximum likelihood (ML), Infomax, cumulant matching, estimating function, etc. have been used to address this difficult problem.…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-10-31 Ali Mohammad-Djafari

In Bayesian applications, there is a huge interest in rapid and accurate estimation of the posterior distribution, particularly for high dimensional or hierarchical models. In this article, we propose to use optimization to solve for a…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-12 Leo L. Duan

It can be important in Bayesian analyses of complex models to construct informative prior distributions which reflect knowledge external to the data at hand. Nevertheless, how much prior information an analyst can elicit from an expert will…

Applications · Statistics 2017-11-10 Xueou Wang , David J. Nott , C. C. Drovandi , Kerrie Mengersen , Michael Evans

This paper considers a new method for the binary asteroid orbit determination problem. The method is based on the Bayesian approach with a global optimisation algorithm. The orbital parameters to be determined are modelled through an a…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2017-08-31 Irina D. Kovalenko , Radu S. Stoica , Nikolay V. Emelyanov

Precise estimation of cross-correlation or similarity between two random variables lies at the heart of signal detection, hyperdimensional computing, associative memories, and neural networks. Although a vast literature exists on different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-02 Zhili Xiao , Shantanu Chakrabartty

In molecular communication (MC) systems, the expected number of molecules observed at the receiver over time after the instantaneous release of molecules by the transmitter is referred to as the channel impulse response (CIR). Knowledge of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Vahid Jamali , Arman Ahmadzadeh , Christophe Jardin , Heinrich Sticht , Robert Schober

Penalized spline estimation with discrete difference penalties (P-splines) is a popular estimation method for semiparametric models, but the classical least-squares estimator is highly sensitive to deviations from its ideal model…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-24 Ioannis Kalogridis , Stefan Van Aelst

An advantage of methods that base inference on a posterior distribution is that credible regions are readily obtained. Except in well-specified situations, however, there is no guarantee that such regions will achieve the nominal…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-28 Nicholas Syring , Ryan Martin