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The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…

In this work, dynamic Bayesian multinets are introduced where a Markov chain state at time t determines conditional independence patterns between random variables lying within a local time window surrounding t. It is shown how…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for unveiling the structure of the invariant global stable manifold from observed time-series data. The underlying unknown dynamical process is…

Bayesian methods are increasingly being applied to parameterize mechanistic process models used in environmental prediction and forecasting. In particular, models describing ecosystem dynamics with multiple states that are linear and…

Functional data analysis, which models data as realizations of random functions over a continuum, has emerged as a useful tool for time series data. Often, the goal is to infer the dynamic connections (or time-varying conditional…

This paper presents a Bayesian method for identification of jump Markov linear system parameters. A primary motivation is to provide accurate quantification of parameter uncertainty without relying on asymptotic in data-length arguments. To…

We consider continuous time Markovian processes where populations of individual agents interact stochastically according to kinetic rules. Despite the increasing prominence of such models in fields ranging from biology to smart cities,…

We present a method that models the evolution of an unbounded number of time series clusters by switching among an unknown number of regimes with linear dynamics. We develop a Bayesian non-parametric approach using a hierarchical Dirichlet…

We present a proof-of-concept of a model comparison approach for analyzing spatio-temporal observations of interacting populations. Our model variants are a collection of structurally similar Bayesian networks. Their distinct Noisy-Or…

We present a Bayesian nonparametric system reliability model which scales well and provides a great deal of flexibility in modeling. The Bayesian approach naturally handles the disparate amounts of component and subsystem data that may…

In this article, we develop fully Bayesian, copula-based, spatial-statistical models for large, noisy, incomplete, and non-Gaussian spatial data. Our approach includes novel constructions of copulas that accommodate a spatial-random-effects…

A new Bayesian modelling framework is introduced for piece-wise homogeneous variable-memory Markov chains, along with a collection of effective algorithmic tools for change-point detection and segmentation of discrete time series. Building…

We develop Bayesian predictive stacking for geostatistical models, where the primary inferential objective is to provide inference on the latent spatial random field and conduct spatial predictions at arbitrary locations. We exploit…

This article introduces a nonparametric approach to spectral analysis of a high-dimensional multivariate nonstationary time series. The procedure is based on a novel frequency-domain factor model that provides a flexible yet parsimonious…

Advances in digital sensors, digital data storage and communications have resulted in systems being capable of accumulating large collections of data. In the light of dealing with the challenges that massive data present, this work proposes…

Inference for spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs) for high-dimensional non-Gaussian spatial data is computationally intensive. The computational challenge is due to the high-dimensional random effects and because Markov chain…

We introduce a probabilistic generative model for disentangling spatio-temporal disease trajectories from series of high-dimensional brain images. The model is based on spatio-temporal matrix factorization, where inference on the sources is…

Spatial transcriptomics has revolutionized tissue analysis by simultaneously mapping gene expression, spatial topography, and histological context across consecutive tissue sections, enabling systematic investigation of spatial…

Motivated by the dynamic modeling of relative abundance data in ecology, we introduce a general approach to model stationary Markovian or non Markovian time series on (relatively) compact spaces such as a hypercube, the simplex or a sphere…

Multi-state models are commonly used for intermittent observations of a state over time, but these are generally based on the Markov assumption, that transition rates are independent of the time spent in current and previous states. In a…