Related papers: Approximating dependent rare events
An approximation method is presented for probabilistic inference with continuous random variables. These problems can arise in many practical problems, in particular where there are "second order" probabilities. The approximation, based on…
The (conditional or unconditional) distribution of the continuous scan statistic in a one-dimensional Poisson process may be approximated by that of a discrete analogue via time discretization (to be referred to as the discrete…
Multivariate Poisson approximation of the length spectrum of random surfaces is studied by means of the Chen-Stein method. This approach delivers simple and explicit error bounds in Poisson limit theorems. They are used to prove that…
We discuss Stein's method for approximation by the stationary distribution of a single-birth Markov chain, in conjunction with stochastic monotonicity and similar assumptions. We use bounds on the increments of the solution of Poisson's…
We use Stein's method to establish the rates of normal approximation in terms of the total variation distance for a large class of sums of score functions of marked Poisson point processes on $\mathbb{R}^d$. As in the study under the weaker…
Stationary stochastic processes with independent increments, of which the Poisson process is a prominent example, are widely used to describe real world events. With the basic assumption that a counting process is stationary and has…
By a method inspired of the Stein's method, we derive an upper-bound of the Rubinstein distance between two absolutely continuous probability measures on configurations space. As an application, we show that the best way to approximate a…
This paper introduces a new stochastic process with values in the set Z of integers with sign. The increments of process are Poisson differences and the dynamics has an autoregressive structure. We study the properties of the process and…
In this paper, we first use the distribution of the number of records to demonstrate that the right tail probabilities of counts of rare events are generally better approximated by the right tail probabilities of Poisson distribution than…
Sums of of 1-dependent integer-valued random variables are approximated by compound Poisson, negative binomial and Binomial distributions and signed compound Poisson measures. Estimates are obtained for total variation and local metrics.…
The Poisson process is the most elementary continuous-time stochastic process that models a stream of repeating events. It is uniquely characterised by a single parameter called the rate. Instead of a single value for this rate, we here…
This paper concerns the development of Stein's method for chi-square approximation and its application to problems in statistics. New bounds for the derivatives of the solution of the gamma Stein equation are obtained. These bounds involve…
This article compares the distributions of integer-valued random variables and Poisson random variables. It considers the total variation and the Wasserstein distance and provides, in particular, explicit bounds on the pointwise difference…
We combine the method of exchangeable pairs with Stein's method for functional approximation. As a result, we give a general linearity condition under which an abstract Gaussian approximation theorem for stochastic processes holds. We apply…
Stein's method compares probability distributions through the study of a class of linear operators called Stein operators. While mainly studied in probability and used to underpin theoretical statistics, Stein's method has led to…
We analyze the Gaussian approximation as a method to obtain the first and second moments of a stochastic process described by a master equation. We justify the use of this approximation with ideas coming from van Kampen's expansion approach…
Motivated by a theorem of Barbour, we revisit some of the classical limit theorems in probability from the viewpoint of the Stein method. We setup the framework to bound Wasserstein distances between some distributions on infinite…
In the setting where we have $n$ independent observations of a random variable $X$, we derive explicit error bounds in total variation distance when approximating the number of observations equal to the maximum of the sample (in the case…
Using Chen-Stein method in combination with size-biased couplings, we obtain the multivariate Poisson approximation in terms of the Wasserstein distance. As applications, we study the multivariate Poisson approximation of the distribution…
We derive and analyze new diffusion approximations of stationary distributions of Markov chains that are based on second- and higher-order terms in the expansion of the Markov chain generator. Our approximations achieve a higher degree of…