Related papers: Bayesian Inference and Learning in Gaussian Proces…

Switching state-space models (SSSM) are a very popular class of time series models that have found many applications in statistics, econometrics and advanced signal processing. Bayesian inference for these models typically relies on Markov…

Bayesian filtering is a general framework for recursively estimating the state of a dynamical system. Classical solutions such that Kalman filter and Particle filter are introduced in this report. Gaussian processes have been introduced as…

We formulate approximate Bayesian inference in non-conjugate temporal and spatio-temporal Gaussian process models as a simple parameter update rule applied during Kalman smoothing. This viewpoint encompasses most inference schemes,…

Analysing non-Gaussian spatial-temporal data requires introducing spatial as well as temporal dependence in generalised linear models through the link function of an exponential family distribution. Unlike in Gaussian likelihoods, inference…

State-space models (SSMs) are a powerful statistical tool for modelling time-varying systems via a latent state. In these models, the latent state is never directly observed. Instead, a sequence of data points related to the state are…

Gaussian process state-space model (GPSSM) is a fully probabilistic state-space model that has attracted much attention over the past decade. However, the outputs of the transition function in the existing GPSSMs are assumed to be…

We present an R package bssm for Bayesian non-linear/non-Gaussian state space modelling. Unlike the existing packages, bssm allows for easy-to-use approximate inference based on Gaussian approximations such as the Laplace approximation and…

We develop a novel data-driven approach to the inverse problem of classical statistical mechanics: given experimental data on the collective motion of a classical many-body system, how does one characterise the free energy landscape of that…

Dynamical system state estimation and parameter calibration problems are ubiquitous across science and engineering. Bayesian approaches to the problem are the gold standard as they allow for the quantification of uncertainties and enable…

In this paper we present a novel inference methodology to perform Bayesian inference for spatiotemporal Cox processes where the intensity function depends on a multivariate Gaussian process. Dynamic Gaussian processes are introduced to…

State space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex time series via a latent stochastic process. Inference for nonlinear, non-Gaussian SSMs is often tackled with particle methods that do not scale well to long time…

Gaussian-process state-space models (GP-SSMs) provide a flexible nonparametric alternative for modeling time-series dynamics that are nonlinear or difficult to specify parametrically. While the Kalman filter is effective for linear-Gaussian…

The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on…

We propose a new class of filtering and smoothing methods for inference in high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, spatio-temporal state-space models. The main idea is to combine the ensemble Kalman filter and smoother, developed in the…

Bayesian field theory denotes a nonparametric Bayesian approach for learning functions from observational data. Based on the principles of Bayesian statistics, a particular Bayesian field theory is defined by combining two models: a…

This paper presents a fast algorithm for estimating hidden states of Bayesian state space models. The algorithm is a variation of amortized simulation-based inference algorithms, where a large number of artificial datasets are generated at…

Accuracy and generalization capabilities are key objectives when learning dynamical system models. To obtain such models from limited data, current works exploit prior knowledge and assumptions about the system. However, the fusion of…

Using Kalman techniques, it is possible to perform optimal estimation in linear Gaussian state-space models. We address here the case where the noise probability density functions are of unknown functional form. A flexible Bayesian…

Gaussian process regression is a powerful Bayesian nonlinear regression method. Recent research has enabled the capture of many types of observations using non-Gaussian likelihoods. To deal with various tasks in spatial modeling, we benefit…

This article presents an approach to Bayesian semiparametric inference for Gaussian multivariate response regression. We are motivated by various small and medium dimensional problems from the physical and social sciences. The statistical…