Related papers: Bayesian inference for CoVaR
Economically responsible mitigation of multivariate extreme risks-such as extreme rainfall over large areas, large simultaneous variations in many stock prices, or widespread breakdowns in transportation systems-requires assessing the…
Designing randomized online algorithms that perform reliably not only in expectation but also under unfavorable realizations of randomness is a fundamental challenge in online decision-making. In this paper, we study this challenge in…
Distortion risk measures are extensively used in finance and insurance applications because of their appealing properties. We present three methods to construct new class of distortion functions and measures. The approach involves the…
The Value-at-Risk (VaR) of comonotonic sums can be decomposed into marginal VaR's at the same level. This additivity property allows to derive useful decompositions for other risk measures. In particular, the Tail Value-at-Risk (TVaR) and…
This paper introduces a novel measure to quantify the directional dependence of extreme events between two variables. The proposed approach is designed to capture asymmetric tail dependence by studying conditional tail expectations of…
We develop a Quantile Bayesian Vector Autoregression (QBVAR) to forecast real oil prices across different quantiles of the conditional distribution. The model allows predictor effects to vary across quantiles, capturing asymmetries that…
When AI systems make errors in high-stakes domains like medical diagnosis or autonomous vehicles, a single algorithmic flaw across varying operational contexts can generate highly heterogeneous losses that challenge traditional insurance…
The paper discusses capital allocation using the Euler formula and focuses on the risk measures Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected shortfall (ES). Some new results connected to this capital allocation is known. Two examples illustrate that…
This thesis evaluates most of the extreme mixture models and methods that have appended in the literature and implements them in the context of finance and insurance. The paper also reviews and studies extreme value theory, time series,…
Volatility is a key measure of risk in financial analysis. The high volatility of one financial asset today could affect the volatility of another asset tomorrow. These lagged effects among volatilities - which we call volatility spillovers…
Consider two stationary time series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions. We aim to detect whether they have a causal relation, that is, if a change in one causes a change in the other. Usual methods for causal discovery are not well…
Assessing dependence within co-movements of financial instruments has been of much interest in risk management. Typically, indices of tail dependence are used to quantify the strength of such dependence, although many of the indices…
We introduce a novel regression model for the conditional left and right tail of a possibly heavy-tailed response. The proposed model can be used to learn the effect of covariates on an extreme value setting via a Lasso-type specification…
Determining risk contributions of unit exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital is an important task in financial risk management. Computing risk contributions involves difficulties caused by rare-event simulations. In this study, we…
In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework for bounding the CVaR of a random variable $X$ using another related random variable $Y$, under assumptions on their cumulative and density functions. Our results yield practical tools for…
The quantitative analysis of financial time series often reveals two distinct features that standard Gaussian frameworks fail to capture: heavy-tailed marginal distributions and the phenomenon of extreme co-movements.While extreme value…
Risk measures such as Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) focus on extreme losses, where scarce tail data makes model error unavoidable. To hedge misspecification, one evaluates worst-case tail risk over an ambiguity set. Using Extreme Value…
Monte Carlo Approaches for calculating Value-at-Risk (VaR) are powerful tools widely used by financial risk managers across the globe. However, they are time consuming and sometimes inaccurate. In this paper, a fast and accurate Monte Carlo…
In safety-critical decision-making, the environment may evolve over time, and the learner adjusts its risk level accordingly. This work investigates risk-averse online optimization in dynamic environments with varying risk levels, employing…
Dynamic quantiles, or Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) models, have been extensively studied at the individual level. However, efforts to estimate multiple dynamic quantiles jointly have been limited. Existing approaches…