Related papers: Defining Predictive Probability Functions for Spec…
The multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) procedure combines variable selection with a function selection procedure (FSP). For continuous variables, a closed test procedure is used to decide between no effect, linear, FP1 or FP2…
A predictive model makes outcome predictions based on some given features, i.e., it estimates the conditional probability of the outcome given a feature vector. In general, a predictive model cannot estimate the causal effect of a feature…
We introduce and investigate a notion of multivalued $\lambda$-dissipative probability vector field (MPVF) in the Wasserstein space $\mathcal{P}_2(\mathsf X)$ of Borel probability measures on a Hilbert space $\mathsf X$. Taking inspiration…
The Gaussian mixture model (GMM) provides a simple yet principled framework for clustering, with properties suitable for statistical inference. In this paper, we propose a new model-based clustering algorithm, called EGMM (evidential GMM),…
We present a new algorithm for probabilistic planning with no observability. Our algorithm, called Probabilistic-FF, extends the heuristic forward-search machinery of Conformant-FF to problems with probabilistic uncertainty about both the…
Probabilistic guarantees on the prediction of data-driven classifiers are necessary to define models that can be considered reliable. This is a key requirement for modern machine learning in which the goodness of a system is measured in…
Based on a recent development in the area of error control coding, we introduce the notion of convolutional factor graphs (CFGs) as a new class of probabilistic graphical models. In this context, the conventional factor graphs are referred…
Proxy pattern-mixture models (PPMM) have previously been proposed as a model-based framework for assessing the potential for nonignorable nonresponse in sample surveys and nonignorable selection in nonprobability samples. One defining…
In this expository article, we highlight the direct connection between card shuffling and the functions known as $P$-partitions that come from algebraic combinatorics. While many (but not all) of the results we discuss are known, we give a…
We study finite probability theory through a category of finite probability schemes and probability-preserving maps, called \emph{bundles}. A bundle simultaneously records a quotient of a sample space, an algebra of random variables, and…
We study the differential properties of higher-order statistical probabilistic programs with recursion and conditioning. Our starting point is an open problem posed by Hongseok Yang: what class of statistical probabilistic programs have…
A folded type model is developed for analyzing compositional data. The proposed model involves an extension of the $\alpha$-transformation for compositional data and provides a new and flexible class of distributions for modeling data…
We present a theoretical framework of probabilistic learning derived by Maximum Probability (MP) Theorem shown in the current paper. In this probabilistic framework, a model is defined as an event in the probability space, and a model or…
We introduce a sharpness functional for probabilistic models that quantifies sharpness as an intrinsic property of the probability distribution. The measure is derived based on a rank-based concentration principle that tracks upward…
This paper investigates what can be inferred about an arbitrary continuous probability distribution from a finite sample of $N$ observations drawn from it. The central finding is that the $N$ sorted sample points partition the real line…
The Linear Multistep Method Particle Filter (LMM PF) is a method for predicting the evolution in time of a evolutionary system governed by a system of differential equations. If some of the parameters of the governing equations are…
Multi-class classification methods that produce sets of probabilistic classifiers, such as ensemble learning methods, are able to model aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatoric uncertainty is then typically quantified via the Bayes…
We propose and study properties of maximum likelihood estimators in the class of conditional transformation models. Based on a suitable explicit parameterisation of the unconditional or conditional transformation function, we establish a…
The Ewens-Pitman sampling model (EP-SM) is a distribution for random partitions of the set $\{1,\ldots,n\}$, with $n\in\mathbb{N}$, which is index by real parameters $\alpha$ and $\theta$ such that either $\alpha\in[0,1)$ and…
We propose several new models for semi-supervised nonnegative matrix factorization (SSNMF) and provide motivation for SSNMF models as maximum likelihood estimators given specific distributions of uncertainty. We present multiplicative…