Related papers: A theoretical framework for trading experiments
We study the problem of conditional two-sample testing, which aims to determine whether two populations have the same distribution after accounting for confounding factors. This problem commonly arises in various applications, such as…
In many large scale distributed systems and on the web, agents need to interact with other unknown agents to carry out some tasks or transactions. The ability to reason about and assess the potential risks in carrying out such transactions…
We develop a theoretical trading conditioning model subject to price volatility and return information in terms of market psychological behavior, based on analytical transaction volume-price probability wave distributions in which we use…
We propose an axiomatic approach to constructing the dynamics of systems, in which one the main elements is the consciousness of a subject. The main axiom is the statements that the state of consciousness is completely determined by the…
We consider a financial market in discrete time and study pricing and hedging conditional on the information available up to an arbitrary point in time. In this conditional framework, we determine the structure of arbitrage-free prices.…
Interaction strategies for reward in competitive environments are significantly influenced by the nature and extent of available information. In financial markets, particularly foreign exchange (forex), traders operate independently with…
Starting from the observation of the real trading activity, we propose a model of a stockmarket simulating all the typical phases taking place in a stock exchange. We show that there is no need of several classes of agents once one has…
The standard approach to causal modelling especially in social and health sciences is the potential outcomes framework due to Neyman and Rubin. In this framework, observations are thought to be drawn from a distribution over variables of…
A formal theory of experimentation will be presented. Such a theory presents the necessary & sufficient conditions a world must satisfy in order to admit the use of the scientific method.
Experiments deliver credible treatment-effect estimates but, because they are costly, are often restricted to specific sites, small populations, or particular mechanisms. A common practice across several fields is therefore to combine…
Two-sided marketplace platforms often run experiments to test the effect of an intervention before launching it platform-wide. A typical approach is to randomize individuals into the treatment group, which receives the intervention, and the…
Humans frequently make decisions with the aid of artificially intelligent (AI) systems. A common pattern is for the AI to recommend an action to the human who retains control over the final decision. Researchers have identified ensuring…
This paper introduces a novel approach to financial crisis prediction by establishing a thermodynamic-like framework derived from the fluctuation theorem of statistical physics. We define market temperature through the probability ratio of…
We propose a general approach for inference for a broad class of treatment effect parameters in a setting of a discrete valued treatment and instrument with a general outcome variable. The class of parameters considered are those that can…
Hoeffding's Inequality provides the maximum probability that a series of n draws from a bounded random variable differ from the variable's true expectation u by more than given tolerance t. The random variable is typically the error rate of…
Establishing the emergence of evolutionary behavior as a defining characteristic of 'life' is a major step in the Artificial life (ALife) studies. We present here an abstract formal framework for this aim based upon the notion of high-level…
Education is a goal-oriented field. But if we want to treat education scientifically so we can accumulate, evaluate, and refine what we learn, then we must develop a theoretical framework that is strongly rooted in objective observations…
Theory purports that animal foraging choices evolve to maximize returns, such as net energy intake. Empirical research in both human and nonhuman animals reveals that individuals often attend to the foraging choices of their competitors…
We attempt to explain stock market dynamics in terms of the interaction among three variables: market price, investor opinion and information flow. We propose a framework for such interaction and apply it to build a model of stock market…
Rather than directly predicting future prices or returns, we follow a more recent trend in asset management and classify the state of a market based on labels. We use numerous standard labels and even construct our own ones. The labels rely…