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Assessing uncertainty is an important step towards ensuring the safety and reliability of machine learning systems. Existing uncertainty estimation techniques may fail when their modeling assumptions are not met, e.g. when the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-24 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Stefano Ermon

Finding optimal policies which maximize long term rewards of Markov Decision Processes requires the use of dynamic programming and backward induction to solve the Bellman optimality equation. However, many real-world problems require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Mridul Agarwal , Vaneet Aggarwal

Policy evaluation estimates the performance of a policy by (1) collecting data from the environment and (2) processing raw data into a meaningful estimate. Due to the sequential nature of reinforcement learning, any improper data-collecting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-21 Shuze Daniel Liu , Claire Chen , Shangtong Zhang

We study the problem of learning exploration-exploitation strategies that effectively adapt to dynamic environments, where the task may change over time. While RNN-based policies could in principle represent such strategies, in practice…

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms aim to learn optimal decisions in unknown environments through experience of taking actions and observing the rewards gained. In some cases, the environment is not influenced by the actions of the RL…

The exploration-exploitation dilemma in reinforcement learning (RL) is a fundamental challenge to efficient RL algorithms. Existing algorithms for finite state and action discounted RL problems address this by assuming sufficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Caleb Ju , Guanghui Lan

In financial applications, reinforcement learning (RL) agents are commonly trained on historical data, where their actions do not influence prices. However, during deployment, these agents trade in live markets where their own transactions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Shaocong Ma , Heng Huang

We address the problem of reinforcement learning in which observations may exhibit an arbitrary form of stochastic dependence on past observations and actions, i.e. environments more general than (PO)MDPs. The task for an agent is to attain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2009-12-30 Daniil Ryabko , Marcus Hutter

Uncertainty quantification for complex deep learning models is increasingly important as these techniques see growing use in high-stakes, real-world settings. Currently, the quality of a model's uncertainty is evaluated using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-15 Benjamin Kompa , Jasper Snoek , Andrew Beam

Proper quantification of predictive uncertainty is essential for the use of machine learning in safety-critical applications. Various uncertainty measures have been proposed for this purpose, typically claiming superiority over other…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

The tendency to overestimate immediate utility is a common cognitive bias. As a result people behave inconsistently over time and fail to reach long-term goals. Behavioral economics tries to help affected individuals by implementing…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2017-08-28 Susanne Albers , Dennis Kraft

As neural networks become more popular, the need for accompanying uncertainty estimates increases. There are currently two main approaches to test the quality of these estimates. Most methods output a density. They can be compared by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Laurens Sluijterman , Eric Cator , Tom Heskes

Model free reinforcement learning suffers from the high sampling complexity inherent to robotic manipulation or locomotion tasks. Most successful approaches typically use random sampling strategies which leads to slow policy convergence. In…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-08-13 Miroslav Bogdanovic , Ludovic Righetti

This article describes a multivariate polynomial regression method where the uncertainty of the input parameters are approximated with Gaussian distributions, derived from the central limit theorem for large weighted sums, directly from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-10-04 Peter Kovesarki , Ian C. Brock

There has been growing progress on theoretical analyses for provably efficient learning in MDPs with linear function approximation, but much of the existing work has made strong assumptions to enable exploration by conventional exploration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-23 Andrea Zanette , Alessandro Lazaric , Mykel J. Kochenderfer , Emma Brunskill

A default assumption in the design of reinforcement-learning algorithms is that a decision-making agent always explores to learn optimal behavior. In sufficiently complex environments that approach the vastness and scale of the real world,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-23 Dilip Arumugam , Saurabh Kumar , Ramki Gummadi , Benjamin Van Roy

Uncertainty is the only certainty there is. Modeling data uncertainty is essential for regression, especially in unconstrained settings. Traditionally the direct regression formulation is considered and the uncertainty is modeled by…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-03-26 Wanhua Li , Xiaoke Huang , Jiwen Lu , Jianjiang Feng , Jie Zhou

Model based predictions of future trajectories of a dynamical system often suffer from inaccuracies, forcing model based control algorithms to re-plan often, thus being computationally expensive, suboptimal and not reliable. In this work,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-11 Norman Di Palo , Harri Valpola

Exploration is widely regarded as one of the most challenging aspects of reinforcement learning (RL), with many naive approaches succumbing to exponential sample complexity. To isolate the challenges of exploration, we propose a new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-10 Chi Jin , Akshay Krishnamurthy , Max Simchowitz , Tiancheng Yu

In many real-world settings, reinforcement learning systems suffer performance degradation when the environment encountered at deployment differs from that observed during training. Distributionally robust reinforcement learning (DR-RL)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Debamita Ghosh , George K. Atia , Yue Wang