Related papers: Predictability of Event Occurrences in Timed Syste…
The outcome of all time series cannot be forecast, e.g. the flipping of a fair coin. Others, like the repeated {01} sequence {010101...} can be forecast exactly. Algorithmic information theory can provide a measure of forecastability that…
Prediction, where observed data is used to quantify uncertainty about a future observation, is a fundamental problem in statistics. Prediction sets with coverage probability guarantees are a common solution, but these do not provide…
We investigate the predictability of extreme events in a dissipative Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a small world topology. Due to the mechanism of self-organized criticality, it is impossible to predict the magnitude of the next event…
We introduce a new formalism of higher-dimensional timed automata, based on van Glabbeek's higher-dimensional automata and Alur's timed automata. We prove that their reachability is PSPACE-complete and can be decided using zone-based…
In this paper, we analyze timed systems with data structures, using a rich interplay of logic and properties of graphs. We start by describing behaviors of timed systems using graphs with timing constraints. Such a graph is called…
We introduce a class of semiparametric time series models by assuming a quasi-likelihood approach driven by a latent factor process. More specifically, given the latent process, we only specify the conditional mean and variance of the time…
The chase is a widely implemented approach to reason with tuple-generating dependencies (tgds), used in data exchange, data integration, and ontology-based query answering. However, it is merely a semi-decision procedure, which may fail to…
Although time is one of our most intuitive physical concepts, its understanding at the fundamental level is still an open question in physics. For instance, time in quantum mechanics and general relativity are two distinct and incompatible…
The paper addresses the problem of computing maximal conditional expected accumulated rewards until reaching a target state (briefly called maximal conditional expectations) in finite-state Markov decision processes where the condition is…
This paper solves a new class of optimization problems under uncertainty, called Probable Event Constrained Optimization (PECO), which optimizes an objective function of decision variables and subjects to a set of Probable Event Constraints…
Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…
This paper focuses on optimizing probabilities of events of interest defined over general controlled discrete-time Markov processes. It is shown that the optimization over a wide class of $\omega$-regular properties can be reduced to the…
Timed systems, such as timed automata, are usually analyzed using their operational semantics on timed words. The classical region abstraction for timed automata reduces them to (untimed) finite state automata with the same time-abstract…
Social predictions do not passively describe the future; they actively shape it. They inform actions and change individual expectations in ways that influence the likelihood of the predicted outcome. Given these dynamics, to what extent can…
We argue that (1) our perception of time through change and (2) the gap between reality and our observation of it are at the heart of both quantum mechanics and the dynamical mechanism of physical systems. We suggest that the origin of…
Temporal Point Processes (TPP) play an important role in predicting or forecasting events. Although these problems have been studied extensively, predicting multiple simultaneously occurring events can be challenging. For instance, more…
We introduce a notion of computable randomness for infinite sequences that generalises the classical version in two important ways. First, our definition of computable randomness is associated with imprecise probability models, in the sense…
This paper introduces a new mobile sensor scheduling problem, involving a single robot tasked with monitoring several events of interest that occur at different locations. Of particular interest is the monitoring of transient events that…
We introduce a prototype tool strategFTO addressing the verification of a security property in critical software. We consider a recent definition of timed opacity where an attacker aims to deduce some secret while having access only to the…
These lecture notes cover basic automata-theoretic concepts and logical formalisms for the modeling and verification of concurrent and distributed systems. Many of these concepts naturally extend the classical automata and logics over…