Related papers: An Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo Algorithm for C…
We introduce methodology for real-time inference in general-state-space hidden Markov models. Specifically, we extend recent advances in controlled sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC) methods-originally proposed for offline smoothing-to the…
Closed-form stochastic filtering equations can be derived in a general setting where probability distributions are replaced by some specific outer measures. In this article, we study how the principles of the sequential Monte Carlo method…
Model counting of Disjunctive Normal Form (DNF) formulas is a critical problem in applications such as probabilistic inference and network reliability. For example, it is often used for query evaluation in probabilistic databases. Due to…
We consider the numerical approximation of $\mathbb{P}[G\in \Omega]$ where the $d$-dimensional random variable $G$ cannot be sampled directly, but there is a hierarchy of increasingly accurate approximations $\{G_\ell\}_{\ell\in\mathbb{N}}$…
The availability of data sets with large numbers of variables is rapidly increasing. The effective application of Bayesian variable selection methods for regression with these data sets has proved difficult since available Markov chain…
A popular method for likelihood-free inference is approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) algorithms. These approximate the posterior using a population of particles, which are updated using Markov kernels. Several…
Most solved dynamic structural macrofinance models are non-linear and/or non-Gaussian state-space models with high-dimensional and complex structures. We propose an annealed controlled sequential Monte Carlo method that delivers numerically…
A Monte Carlo method for computing the action of a matrix exponential for a certain class of matrices on a vector is proposed. The method is based on generating random paths, which evolve through the indices of the matrix, governed by a…
We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the cumulative distribution function of a quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters or initial conditions. Our approach…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating expectations with respect to continuous un-normalized probability distributions. MCMC estimators typically have higher variance than…
We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. Under such an assumption,…
This paper introduces an open-ended sequential algorithm for computing the p-value of a test using Monte Carlo simulation. It guarantees that the resampling risk, the probability of a different decision than the one based on the theoretical…
This paper focuses on variational inference with intractable likelihood functions that can be unbiasedly estimated. A flexible variational approximation based on Gaussian mixtures is developed, by adopting the mixture population Monte Carlo…
In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…
In many applications, it is of interest to approximate data, given by mxn matrix A, by a matrix B of at most rank k, which is much smaller than m and n. The best approximation is given by singular value decomposition, which is too time…
This paper addresses finite sample stability properties of sequential Monte Carlo methods for approximating sequences of probability distributions. The results presented herein are applicable in the scenario where the start and end…
We propose sequential Monte Carlo based algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation of the static parameters in hidden Markov models with an intractable likelihood using ideas from approximate Bayesian computation. The static parameter…
We present bounds for the finite sample error of sequential Monte Carlo samplers on static spaces. Our approach explicitly relates the performance of the algorithm to properties of the chosen sequence of distributions and mixing properties…
Bayesian inference via standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is too computationally intensive to handle large datasets, since the cost per step usually scales like $\Theta(n)$ in the number of data points $n$. We propose the…
We present Generative Monte Carlo (GMC), a novel paradigm for particle transport simulation that integrates generative artificial intelligence directly into the stochastic solution of the linear Boltzmann equation. By reformulating the…