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Automated predictions require explanations to be interpretable by humans. One type of explanation is a rationale, i.e., a selection of input features such as relevant text snippets from which the model computes the outcome. However, a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-05-12 Diego Antognini , Boi Faltings

We develop a general theory of omitted variable bias for a wide range of common causal parameters, including (but not limited to) averages of potential outcomes, average treatment effects, average causal derivatives, and policy effects from…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-28 Victor Chernozhukov , Carlos Cinelli , Whitney Newey , Amit Sharma , Vasilis Syrgkanis

The ability to interpret the mental state of another agent based on its behavior, also called Theory of Mind (ToM), is crucial for humans in any kind of social interaction. Artificial systems, such as intelligent assistants, would also…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-09-24 Jan Pöppel , Stefan Kopp

This paper presents an approach to the design of autonomous, real-time systems operating in uncertain environments. We address issues of problem solving and reflective control of reasoning under uncertainty in terms of two fundamental…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-10 John S. Breese , Michael R. Fehling

There have been two major lines of research aimed at capturing resource-bounded players in game theory. The first, initiated by Rubinstein, charges an agent for doing costly computation; the second, initiated by Neyman, does not charge for…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2013-08-20 Joseph Y. Halpern , Rafael Pass , Lior Seeman

We study a model of a population making a binary decision based on information spreading within the population, which is fully connected or covering a square grid. We assume that a fraction of the population wants to make the choice of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-05-24 Petter Holme , Hang-Hyun Jo

We develop a novel framework of bounded rationality under cognitive frictions that studies learning over optimal behavior through both deliberative reasoning and accumulated experiences. Using both types of information, agents engage in…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-03-28 Cosmin Ilut , Rosen Valchev

Decisions are often based on imprecise, uncertain or vague information. Likewise, the consequences of an action are often equally unpredictable, thus putting the decision maker into a twofold jeopardy. Assuming that the effects of an action…

General Economics · Economics 2022-05-03 Stefan Rass , Sandra König , Stefan Schauer

We consider decision problems under uncertainty where the options available to a decision maker and the resulting outcome are related through a causal mechanism which is unknown to the decision maker. We ask how a decision maker can learn…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-07-04 M. Gonzalez-Soto , L. E. Sucar , H. J. Escalante

The rational choice theory is based on this idea that people rationally pursue goals for increasing their personal interests. In most conditions, the behavior of an actor is not independent of the person and others' behavior. Here, we…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-02-27 Madjid Eshaghi Gordji , Gholamreza Askari

Perfectly rational decision-makers maximize expected utility, but crucially ignore the resource costs incurred when determining optimal actions. Here we propose an information-theoretic formalization of bounded rational decision-making…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-04 Pedro A. Ortega , Daniel A. Braun

The issue of whether we make decisions freely has vexed philosophers for millennia, Resolving this is vital for solving a diverse range of problems, from the physiology of how the brain makes decisions (and how we assign moral…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2025-06-30 Tim Palmer

Different types of reasoning impose different structural demands on representational systems, yet no systematic account of these demands exists across psychology, AI, and philosophy of mind. I propose a framework identifying four structural…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Yiling Wu

In this paper an approach to automated deduction under uncertainty,based on possibilistic logic, is proposed ; for that purpose we deal with clauses weighted by a degree which is a lower bound of a necessity or a possibility measure,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-08 Didier Dubois , Jerome Lang , Henri Prade

Causal reasoning is the main learning and explanation tool used by humans. AI systems should possess causal reasoning capabilities to be deployed in the real world with trust and reliability. Introducing the ideas of causality to machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Abbavaram Gowtham Reddy

Understanding the fundamentals of human reasoning is central to the development of any system built to closely interact with humans. Cognitive science pursues the goal of modeling human-like intelligence from a theory-driven perspective…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-03-12 Nicolas Riesterer , Daniel Brand , Marco Ragni

Motivated reasoning posits that people distort how they process information in the direction of beliefs they find attractive. This paper creates a novel experimental design to identify motivated reasoning from Bayesian updating when people…

General Economics · Economics 2022-05-26 Michael Thaler

Prior work has identified a resilient phenomenon that threatens the performance of human-AI decision-making teams: overreliance, when people agree with an AI, even when it is incorrect. Surprisingly, overreliance does not reduce when the AI…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-01-30 Helena Vasconcelos , Matthew Jörke , Madeleine Grunde-McLaughlin , Tobias Gerstenberg , Michael Bernstein , Ranjay Krishna

When evaluating causal influence from one time series to another in a multivariate dataset it is necessary to take into account the conditioning effect of the other variables. In the presence of many variables, and possibly of a reduced…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-03-26 Daniele Marinazzo , Mario Pellicoro , Sebastiano Stramaglia

Bayesian inference has theoretical attractions as a principled framework for reasoning about beliefs. However, the motivations of Bayesian inference which claim it to be the only 'rational' kind of reasoning do not apply in practice. They…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-14 Sebastian Farquhar