Related papers: A proportional hazard model for the estimation of …
This paper provides guidance for researchers with some mathematical background on the conduct of time-to-event analysis in observational studies based on intensity (hazard) models. Discussions of basic concepts like time axis, event…
In applied time-to-event analysis, a flexible parametric approach is to model the hazard rate as a piecewise constant function of time. However, the change points and values of the piecewise constant hazard are usually unknown and need to…
Like all natural hazards, space weather exhibits occasional extreme events over timescales of decades to centuries. Historical events provoked much interest but had little economic impact. However, the widespread adoption of advanced…
Projections of storm surge return levels are a basic requirement for effective management of coastal risks. A common approach to estimate hazards posed by extreme sea levels is to use a statistical model, which may use a time series of a…
Cox's proportional hazards model is one of the most popular statistical models to evaluate associations of exposure with a censored failure time outcome. When confounding factors are not fully observed, the exposure hazard ratio estimated…
The hazard ratio from the Cox proportional hazards model is a ubiquitous summary of treatment effect. However, when hazards are non-proportional, the hazard ratio can lose a stable causal interpretation and become study-dependent because it…
Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…
Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011--2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at…
Solar storms perturb Earth's magnetosphere, triggering geomagnetic storms that threaten space-based systems and infrastructure. Despite advances in spaceborne and ground-based observations, the causal chain driving…
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…
Geomagnetic storms are large-scale disturbances of the Earth's magnetosphere driven by solar wind interactions, posing significant risks to space-based and ground-based infrastructure. The Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index quantifies…
Motivated by the need to analyze continuously updated data sets in the context of time-to-event modeling, we propose a novel nonparametric approach to estimate the conditional hazard function given a set of continuous and discrete…
Hurricane-driven storm surge is one of the most deadly and costly natural disasters, making precise quantification of the surge hazard of great importance. Surge hazard quantification is often performed through physics-based computer models…
New methods for time-to-event prediction are proposed by extending the Cox proportional hazards model with neural networks. Building on methodology from nested case-control studies, we propose a loss function that scales well to large data…
Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…
Geomagnetic storms (GS) occur when solar winds disrupt Earth's magnetosphere. GS can cause severe damages to satellites, power grids, and communication infrastructures. Estimate of direct economic impacts of a large scale GS exceeds $40…
We introduce new approaches for forecasting IBNR (Incurred But Not Reported) frequencies by leveraging individual claims data, which includes accident date, reporting delay, and possibly additional features for every reported claim. A key…
The interaction between solar activity and Earth's magnetosphere magnetosphere-ionosphere system often results in geomagnetic storms that disturb ionospheric electron density. In this study, we analyse the ionospheric response to selected…
The hazard ratio, typically estimated using Cox's famous proportional hazards model, is the most common effect measure used to describe the association or effect of a covariate on a time-to-event outcome. In recent years the hazard ratio…
Geomagnetic storms play a critical role in space weather physics with the potential for far reaching economic impacts including power grid outages, air traffic rerouting, satellite damage and GPS disruption. The LFM-MIX is a…