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We study online inference and asymptotic covariance estimation for the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm. While classical methods (such as plug-in and batch-means estimators) are available, they either require inaccessible…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-24 Ziyang Wei , Wanrong Zhu , Jingyang Lyu , Wei Biao Wu

Efficiently approximating local curvature information of the loss function is a key tool for optimization and compression of deep neural networks. Yet, most existing methods to approximate second-order information have high computational or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-19 Elias Frantar , Eldar Kurtic , Dan Alistarh

We introduce a new method of estimation of parameters in semiparametric and nonparametric models. The method is based on estimating equations that are $U$-statistics in the observations. The $U$-statistics are based on higher order…

A method is devised for numerically solving a class of finite-horizon optimal control problems subject to cascade linear discrete-time dynamics. It is assumed that the linear state and input inequality constraints, and the quadratic measure…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-10-13 Michael Cantoni , Farhad Farokhi , Eric C. Kerrigan , Iman Shames

The forecasting skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models critically depends on the accurate initial conditions, also known as analysis, provided by data assimilation (DA). Traditional DA methods often face a trade-off between…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-28 Yanfei Xiang , Weixin Jin , Haiyu Dong , Mingliang Bai , Zuliang Fang , Pengcheng Zhao , Hongyu Sun , Kit Thambiratnam , Qi Zhang , Xiaomeng Huang

We present a new approach to automatic amortized inference in universal probabilistic programs which improves performance compared to current methods. Our approach is a variation of inference compilation (IC) which leverages deep neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-29 William Harvey , Andreas Munk , Atılım Güneş Baydin , Alexander Bergholm , Frank Wood

We investigate methods for penalized regression in the presence of missing observations. This paper introduces a method for estimating the parameters which compensates for the missing observations. We first, derive an unbiased estimator of…

Applications · Statistics 2013-10-09 Yunjin Choi , Robert Tibshirani

Shallow water equations are extensively considered in the domains of oceans, atmospheric modelling, and engineering research (Franca et al., 2022), which play significant roles in floods and tsunami governance. Nonetheless, the accurate…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-09-22 Ruijia Yu

In this article we develop algorithms for data assimilation based upon a computational time dependent stable/unstable splitting. Our particular method is based upon shadowing refinement and synchronization techniques and is motivated by…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-07-31 Bart de Leeuw , Svetlana Dubinkina , Jason Frank , Andrew Steyer , Xuemin Tu , Erik Van Vleck

Unconstrained optimization problems become more common in scientific computing and engineering applications with the rapid development of artificial intelligence, and numerical methods for solving them more quickly and efficiently have been…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-17 Lin Li , Pengcheng Xie , Li Zhang

Data assimilation is a technique for increasing the accuracy of simulations of solutions to partial differential equations by incorporating observable data into the solution as time evolves. Recently, a promising new algorithm for data…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2018-12-06 Adam Larios , Collin Victor

In this article we develop further an algorithm for data assimilation based upon a shadowing refinement technique [de Leeuw et al., SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Sys., 17 (2018)] to take partial observations into account. Our method is based on…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-13 Bart de Leeuw , Svetlana Dubinkina

Performance estimation aims at estimating the loss that a predictive model will incur on unseen data. These procedures are part of the pipeline in every machine learning project and are used for assessing the overall generalisation ability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo , Igor Mozetic

A parallel-in-time algorithm based on an augmented Lagrangian approach is proposed to solve four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation problems. The assimilation window is divided into multiple sub-intervals that allows to…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2016-04-20 Vishwas Rao , Adrian Sandu

We present statistical methods for big data arising from online analytical processing, where large amounts of data arrive in streams and require fast analysis without storage/access to the historical data. In particular, we develop…

Computation · Statistics 2018-06-13 Elizabeth D. Schifano , Jing Wu , Chun Wang , Jun Yan , Ming-Hui Chen

For uncertainty propagation of highly complex and/or nonlinear problems, one must resort to sample-based non-intrusive approaches [1]. In such cases, minimizing the number of function evaluations required to evaluate the response surface is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-12-04 Anindya Bhaduri , Lori Graham-Brady

Severe storms, tropical cyclones, and associated tornadoes, floods, lightning, and microbursts threaten life and property. Reliable, precise, and accurate alerts of these phenomena can trigger defensive actions and preparations. However,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-02-15 Ross N. Hoffman , John M. Henderson , Thomas Nehrkorn

Probabilistic wind power forecasting approaches have significantly advanced in recent decades. However, forecasters often assume data completeness and overlook the challenge of missing values resulting from sensor failures, network…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-25 Honglin Wen

We propose a reinforcement learning based approach to tackle the cost-sensitive learning problem where each input feature has a specific cost. The acquisition process is handled through a stochastic policy which allows features to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-07-14 Gabriella Contardo , Ludovic Denoyer , Thierry Artières

Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference is to initially invest computational cost in training an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-25 Manuel Glöckler , Michael Deistler , Jakob H. Macke