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We emphasize that it is possible to improve the principle of unbiased risk estimation for model selection by addressing excess risk deviations in the design of penalization procedures. Indeed, we propose a modification of Akaike's…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-23 Adrien Saumard , Fabien Navarro

Noting the erroneous proclivity of information-theoretic approaches, like the Akaike information criterion (AIC), to select simpler models while performing model selection with a small sample size, we address the problem of new physics…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2020-08-12 Srimoy Bhattacharya , Soumitra Nandi , Sunando Kumar Patra , Shantanu Sahoo

Effective model selection is critical in symbolic regression (SR) to identify mathematical expressions that balance accuracy and complexity, and have low expected error on unseen data. Many modern implementations of genetic programming (GP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Ali Soltani , Gabriel Kronberger , Fabricio Olivetti de Franca , Mattia Billa , Alessandro Lucantonio

The information criterion AIC has been used successfully in many areas of statistical modeling, and since it is derived based on the Taylor expansion of the log-likelihood function and the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-12 Genshiro Kitagawa

When the in-sample Sharpe ratio is obtained by optimizing over a k-dimensional parameter space, it is a biased estimator for what can be expected on unseen data (out-of-sample). We derive (1) an unbiased estimator adjusting for both sources…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-26 Dirk Paulsen , Jakob Söhl

Regularized models have been applied in lots of areas, with high-dimensional data sets being popular. Because tuning parameter decides the theoretical performance and computational efficiency of the regularized models, tuning parameter…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-14 Pan Shang , Lingchen Kong , Yiting Ma

Independent component (IC) models are a standard tool for representing multivariate data in statistics, signal processing, and machine learning. Despite the extensive use of IC models, much less attention has been given to goodness-of-fit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-20 Mingshuo Liu , Siyao Wang , Miles E. Lopes

We test three common information criteria (IC) for selecting the order of a Hawkes process with an intensity kernel that can be expressed as a mixture of exponential terms. These processes find application in high-frequency financial data…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-05 J. M. Chen , A. G. Hawkes , E. Scalas , M. Trinh

Variable selection is essential for improving inference and interpretation in multivariate linear regression. Although a number of alternative regressor selection criteria have been suggested, the most prominent and widely used are the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Zhidong Bai , Yasunori Fujikoshi , Jiang Hu

We review the Akaike, deviance, and Watanabe-Akaike information criteria from a Bayesian perspective, where the goal is to estimate expected out-of-sample-prediction error using a biascorrected adjustment of within-sample error. We focus on…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-07-24 Andrew Gelman , Jessica Hwang , Aki Vehtari

The semiparametric estimation approach, which includes inverse-probability-weighted and doubly robust estimation using propensity scores, is a standard tool in causal inference, and it is rapidly being extended in various directions. On the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-29 Takamichi Baba , Yoshiyuki Ninomiya

The identification of the lag length for vector autoregressive models by mean of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Partial Autoregressive and Correlation Matrices (PAM and PCM hereafter) is studied in the framework of processes with time…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-27 Hamdi RaÏssi

The growing use of model-selection principles in ecology for statistical inference is underpinned by information criteria (IC) and cross-validation (CV) techniques. Although IC techniques, such as Akaike's Information Criterion, have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-10 Luke Yates , Zach Aandahl , Shane A. Richards , Barry W. Brook

For prediction models developed on clustered data that do not account for cluster heterogeneity in model parameterization, it is crucial to use cluster-based validation to assess model generalizability on unseen clusters. This paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-23 Jiaxing Qiu , Douglas E. Lake , Pavel Chernyavskiy , Teague R. Henry

The use of Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in the model selection procedure is under the assumption that the observations are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). However, in practice, we do not always have i.i.d. samples.…

Applications · Statistics 2021-05-03 Nan Shen , Bárbara González

A common problem in physics is to fit regression data by a parametric class of functions, and to decide whether a certain functional form allows for a good fit of the data. Common goodness of fit methods are based on the calculation of the…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-07 N. Bissantz , A. Munk

In data-driven optimization, the sample performance of the obtained decision typically incurs an optimistic bias against the true performance, a phenomenon commonly known as the Optimizer's Curse and intimately related to overfitting in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Garud Iyengar , Henry Lam , Tianyu Wang

Information criteria have had a profound impact on modern ecological science. They allow researchers to estimate which probabilistic approximating models are closest to the generating process. Unfortunately, information criterion comparison…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-23 Jose-Miguel Ponciano , Mark L Taper

In statistical learning, models are classified as regular or singular depending on whether the mapping from parameters to probability distributions is injective. Most models with hierarchical structures or latent variables are singular, for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-26 Naoki Hayashi , Takuro Kutsuna , Sawa Takamuku

We introduce a generalized information criterion that contains other well-known information criteria, such as Bayesian information Criterion (BIC) and Akaike information criterion (AIC), as special cases. Furthermore, the proposed spectral…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-21 L. Martino , R. San Millan-Castillo , E. Morgado