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The advent of large-scale inference has spurred reexamination of conventional statistical thinking. In a Gaussian model for $n$ many $z$-scores with at most $k < \frac{n}{2}$ nonnulls, Efron suggests estimating the location and scale…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-15 Subhodh Kotekal , Chao Gao

Relative to the large literature on upper bounds on complexity of convex optimization, lesser attention has been paid to the fundamental hardness of these problems. Given the extensive use of convex optimization in machine learning and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-11-22 Alekh Agarwal , Peter L. Bartlett , Pradeep Ravikumar , Martin J. Wainwright

In stochastic convex optimization the goal is to minimize a convex function $F(x) \doteq {\mathbf E}_{{\mathbf f}\sim D}[{\mathbf f}(x)]$ over a convex set $\cal K \subset {\mathbb R}^d$ where $D$ is some unknown distribution and each…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-12-28 Vitaly Feldman

Empirical risk minimization is the main tool for prediction problems, but its extension to relational data remains unsolved. We solve this problem using recent ideas from graph sampling theory to (i) define an empirical risk for relational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-25 Victor Veitch , Morgane Austern , Wenda Zhou , David M. Blei , Peter Orbanz

We present upper and lower bounds for the prediction error of the Lasso. For the case of random Gaussian design, we show that under mild conditions the prediction error of the Lasso is up to smaller order terms dominated by the prediction…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-04 Sara van de Geer

In this work, we establish risk bounds for the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) with both dependent and heavy-tailed data-generating processes. We do so by extending the seminal works of Mendelson [Men15, Men18] on the analysis of ERM with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-14 Abhishek Roy , Krishnakumar Balasubramanian , Murat A. Erdogdu

In a wide range of statistical learning problems such as ranking, clustering or metric learning among others, the risk is accurately estimated by $U$-statistics of degree $d\geq 1$, i.e. functionals of the training data with low variance…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-25 Stéphan Clémençon , Aurélien Bellet , Igor Colin

We provide tight upper and lower bounds on the complexity of minimizing the average of $m$ convex functions using gradient and prox oracles of the component functions. We show a significant gap between the complexity of deterministic vs…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-04-05 Blake Woodworth , Nathan Srebro

We establish a nonasymptotic lower bound on the $L_2$ minimax risk for a class of generalized linear models. It is further shown that the minimax risk for the canonical linear model matches this lower bound up to a universal constant.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-11 Kuan-Yun Lee , Thomas A. Courtade

In statistics and machine learning, when we train a fitted model on available data, we typically want to ensure that we are searching within a model class that contains at least one accurate model -- that is, we would like to ensure an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-06 Manuel M. Müller , Yuetian Luo , Rina Foygel Barber

We consider a recursive algorithm to construct an aggregated estimator from a finite number of base decision rules in the classification problem. The estimator approximately minimizes a convex risk functional under the l1-constraint. It is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Anatoli Juditsky , Alexander Nazin , Alexandre Tsybakov , Nicolas Vayatis

We develop polynomial-time algorithms for near-optimal minimax mean estimation under $\ell_2$-squared loss in a Gaussian sequence model under convex constraints. The parameter space is an origin-symmetric, type-2 convex body $K \subset…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Matey Neykov

We present a uniform analysis of biased stochastic gradient methods for minimizing convex, strongly convex, and non-convex composite objectives, and identify settings where bias is useful in stochastic gradient estimation. The framework we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-02-28 Derek Driggs , Jingwei Liang , Carola-Bibiane Schönlieb

A new risk bound is presented for the problem of convex/concave function estimation, using the least squares estimator. The best known risk bound, as had appeared in \citet{GSvex}, scaled like $\log(en) n^{-4/5}$ under the mean squared…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-11 Sabyasachi Chatterjee

Performative prediction is a framework accounting for the shift in the data distribution induced by the prediction of a model deployed in the real world. Ensuring rapid convergence to a stable solution where the data distribution remains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Pedram Khorsandi , Rushil Gupta , Mehrnaz Mofakhami , Simon Lacoste-Julien , Gauthier Gidel

Estimation and prediction problems for dense signals are often framed in terms of minimax problems over highly symmetric parameter spaces. In this paper, we study minimax problems over l2-balls for high-dimensional linear models with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-22 Lee Dicker

We consider the problem of estimating a sparse linear regression vector $\beta^*$ under a gaussian noise model, for the purpose of both prediction and model selection. We assume that prior knowledge is available on the sparsity pattern,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-08-21 Karim Lounici , Massimiliano Pontil , Alexandre B. Tsybakov , Sara van de Geer

We address the problem of learning an unknown smooth function and its derivatives from noisy pointwise evaluations under the supremum norm. While classical nonparametric regression provides a strong theoretical foundation, traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Davide Maran , Marcello Restelli

This work examines risk bounds for nonparametric distributional regression estimators. For convex-constrained distributional regression, general upper bounds are established for the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the…

The performance of Least Squares (LS) estimators is studied in isotonic, unimodal and convex regression. Our results have the form of sharp oracle inequalities that account for the model misspecification error. In isotonic and unimodal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-09 Pierre C. Bellec