Related papers: Empirical Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Model …

Bayesian max-margin models have shown superiority in various practical applications, such as text categorization, collaborative prediction, social network link prediction and crowdsourcing, and they conjoin the flexibility of Bayesian…

The Heston stochastic volatility model is arguably, the most popular stochastic volatility model used to price and risk manage exotic derivatives. In spite of this, it is not necessarily easy to calibrate to the market and obtain stable…

Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically…

The use of factor stochastic volatility models requires choosing the number of latent factors used to describe the dynamics of the financial returns process; however, empirical evidence suggests that the number and makeup of pertinent…

We consider parallel asynchronous Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for problems where we can leverage (stochastic) gradients to define continuous dynamics which explore the target distribution. We outline a solution strategy for…

In the following paper we provide a review and development of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for option pricing. SMC are a class of Monte Carlo-based algorithms, that are designed to approximate expectations w.r.t a sequence of…

We propose a method to construct a proposal density for the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations of the GARCH model. The proposal density is constructed adaptively by using the data sampled by the…

We demonstrate the use of a variational method to determine a quantitative lower bound on the rate of convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms as a function of the target density and proposal density. The bound relies on…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a methodology for sampling approximately from a sequence of probability distributions of increasing dimension and estimating their normalizing constants. We propose here an alternative methodology named…

In order to obtain a reasonable and reliable forecast method for crude oil price volatility, this paper evaluates the forecast performance of single-regime GARCH models (including the standard linear GARCH model and the nonlinear GJR-GARCH…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are generally regarded as the gold standard technique for Bayesian inference. They are theoretically well-understood and conceptually simple to apply in practice. The drawback of MCMC is that in…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful and accurate method to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, HMC techniques are computationally demanding for Bayesian neural networks due to the high…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for performing approximate inference in complex probabilistic models of continuous variables. In common with many MCMC methods, however, the standard HMC…

We suggest two classes of multivariate GARCH--models which are both easy to estimate and perform well in forecasting the covariance matrix of more than one hundred stocks. We apply methods from random matrix theory (RMT) to determine the…

Our article considers a regression model with observed factors. The observed factors have a flexible stochastic volatility structure that has separate dynamics for the volatilities and the correlation matrix. The correlation matrix of the…

We propose a fast stochastic Hamilton Monte Carlo (HMC) method, for sampling from a smooth and strongly log-concave distribution. At the core of our proposed method is a variance reduction technique inspired by the recent advance in…

Several studies explore inferences based on stochastic volatility (SV) models, taking into account the stylized facts of return data. The common problem is that the latent parameters of many volatility models are high-dimensional and…

The research presented in this article provides an alternative option pricing approach for a class of rough fractional stochastic volatility models. These models are increasingly popular between academics and practitioners due to their…

We consider stochastic volatility models using piecewise constant parameters. We suggest a hybrid optimization algorithm for fitting the models to a volatility surface and provide some numerical results. Finally, we provide an outlook on…

Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility…