Related papers: Fluctuation analysis: can estimates be trusted?
We consider the problem of estimating the joint distribution of $n$ independent random variables. Our approach is based on a family of candidate probabilities that we shall call a model and which is chosen to either contain the true…
We study arithmetic progressions $\{a,a+b,a+2b,\dots,a+(\ell-1) b\}$, with $\ell\ge 3$, in random subsets of the initial segment of natural numbers $[n]:=\{1,2,\dots, n\}$. Given $p\in[0,1]$ we denote by $[n]_p$ the random subset of $[n]$…
The method of maximum entropy (ME) is extended to address the following problem: Once one accepts that the ME distribution is to be preferred over all others, the question is to what extent are distributions with lower entropy supposed to…
The formula for the probability of fixation of a new mutation is widely used in theoretical population genetics and molecular evolution. Here we derive a series of identities, inequalities and approximations for the exact probability of…
The thermodynamic uncertainty relation (TUR) provides a universal entropic bound for the precision of the fluctuation of the charge transfer for example for a class of continuous time stochastic processes. However, its extension to general…
A mathematical model is developed, to jointly analyze elastic and inelastic scattering data of fluctuating membranes within a single theoretical framework. The model builds on a non-homogeneously clipped time-dependent Gaussian random…
One of the most striking effect of fluctuations in evolutionary game theory is the possibility for mutants to fixate (take over) an entire population. Here, we generalize a recent WKB-based theory to study fixation in evolutionary games…
Darwinian evolution can be modeled in general terms as a flow in the space of fitness (i.e. reproductive rate) distributions. In the diffusion approximation, Tsimring et al. have showed that this flow admits "fitness wave" solutions:…
When the data do not conform to the hypothesis of a known sampling-variance, the fitting of a constant to a set of measured values is a long debated problem. Given the data, fitting would require to find what measurand value is the most…
Fluctuation theorems have become an important tool in single molecule biophysics to measure free energy differences from non-equilibrium experiments. When significant coarse-graining or noise affect the measurements, the determination of…
The main interest of the present work is the generalization of the Boltzmann-Gibbs distributions and the fluctuation theory based on the consideration of the reparametrization invariance of the microcanonical ensemble. This approach allows…
In many biological processes, the size of a population changes stochastically with time, and recent work in the context of cancer and bacterial growth have focused on the situation when the mean population size grows exponentially. Here,…
Smooth linear statistics of random permutation matrices, sampled under a general Ewens distribution, exhibit an interesting non-universality phenomenon. Though they have bounded variance, their fluctuations are asymptotically non-Gaussian…
Given a probability density $P({\bf x}|{\boldsymbol \lambda})$, where $\bf x$ represents continuous degrees of freedom and $\lambda$ a set of parameters, it is possible to construct a general identity relating expectations of observable…
We analytically describe the decay to equilibrium of generic observables of a non-integrable system after a perturbation in the form of a random matrix. We further obtain an analytic form for the time-averaged fluctuations of an observable…
We develop a General Fluctuation Formula for phase variables that are odd under time reversal. Simulations are used to verify the new formula.
Here we try and delienate the properties of the function that corresponds to fluctuations in the momentum distribution. The quantity denoted by $ N(k,k^{'}) $ is quite an interesting object. It satisfies various elegant sum rules and is…
For a sample of Exponentially distributed durations we aim at point estimation and a confidence interval for its parameter. A duration is only observed if it has ended within a certain time interval, determined by a Uniform distribution.…
To interpret uncertainty estimates from differentiable probabilistic models, recent work has proposed generating Counterfactual Latent Uncertainty Explanations (CLUEs). However, for a single input, such approaches could output a variety of…
Across a large range of scales, accreting sources show remarkably similar patterns of variability, most notably the log-normality of the luminosity distribution and the linear root-mean square (rms)-flux relationship. These results are…