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Conformal prediction (CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Yizhou Min , Yizhou Lu , Lanqi Li , Zhen Zhang , Jiaye Teng

We propose nonparametric estimation of divergence measures between continuous distributions. Our approach is based on a plug-in kernel- type estimators of density functions. We give the uniform in bandwidth consistency for the proposal…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-24 Papa Ngom , Hamza Dhaker , Pierre Mendy , El Hadji Deme

We will focus on estimating the integrated covariance of two diffusion processes observed in a nonsynchronous manner. The observation data is contaminated by some noise, which is possibly correlated with the returns of the diffusion…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-07 Yuta Koike

Doubly protected estimators are widely used for estimating the population mean of an outcome Y from a sample where the response is missing in some individuals. To compensate for the missing responses, a vector X of covariates is observed at…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-07 Julieta Molina , Mariela Sued , Marina Valdora , Víctor Yohai

We study the problem of estimating the mean of a random vector in $\mathbb{R}^d$ based on an i.i.d.\ sample, when the accuracy of the estimator is measured by a general norm on $\mathbb{R}^d$. We construct an estimator (that depends on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-19 Gábor Lugosi , Shahar Mendelson

We propose and study three confidence intervals (CIs) centered at an estimator that is intentionally biased to reduce mean squared error. The first CI simply uses an unbiased estimator's standard error; compared to centering at the unbiased…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-04 David M. Kaplan , Xin Liu

Two-sample inference for the difference of population means typically relies upon a Central Limit Theorem approximation. When data are drawn from a Negative Binomial distribution, previous work of Shilane et al. (2010) showed that a Normal…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-06 David Shilane , Derek Bean

In the present paper, we consider the Pearson chi-square statistic defined on a finite alphabet which is assumed to dynamically vary as the sample size increases, and establish its moderate deviation principle.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Zhenhong Yu , Yu Miao

Nonparametric estimation of a mixing distribution based on data coming from a mixture model is a challenging problem. Beyond estimation, there is interest in uncertainty quantification, e.g., confidence intervals for features of the mixing…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-14 Vaidehi Dixit , Ryan Martin

Constructing distribution-free confidence intervals for the median, a classic problem in statistics, has seen numerous solutions in the literature. While coverage validity has received ample attention, less has been explored about interval…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-12 Manit Paul , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

The sample mean is often used to aggregate different unbiased estimates of a parameter, producing a final estimate that is unbiased but possibly high-variance. This paper introduces the Bayesian median of means, an aggregation rule that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-05 Paulo Orenstein

The Moderate Deviations Principle (MDP) is well-understood for sums of independent random variables, worse understood for stationary random sequences, and scantily understood for random fields. An upper bound for a new class of random…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-16 Boris Tsirelson

We use a new method via $p$-Wasserstein bounds to prove Cram\'er-type moderate deviations in (multivariate) normal approximations. In the classical setting that $W$ is a standardized sum of $n$ independent and identically distributed…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-27 Xiao Fang , Yuta Koike

This note provides a tool to infer moderate deviations principles for specific random variables from deviations principles for their Hubbard-Stratonovich transforms.

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-03 Matthias Löwe , Raphael Meiners

The present manuscript is concerned with component-wise estimation of the positive power of ordered restricted standard deviation of two normal populations with certain restrictions on the means. We propose several improved estimators under…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Somnath Mondal , Lakshmi Kanta Patra

We study the basic task of mean estimation in the presence of mean-shift contamination. In the mean-shift contamination model, an adversary is allowed to replace a small constant fraction of the clean samples by samples drawn from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Ilias Diakonikolas , Giannis Iakovidis , Daniel M. Kane , Sihan Liu

We prove that moderate deviations for empirical measures for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains hold under the assumption of uniform convergence of transition probability matrices for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains in Ces\`aro…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Mingzhou Xu , Kun Cheng

Unbiased and consistent variance estimators generally do not exist for design-based treatment effect estimators because experimenters never observe more than one potential outcome for any unit. The problem is exacerbated by interference and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-04 Christopher Harshaw , Joel A. Middleton , Fredrik Sävje

The coefficient of variation (CV) is commonly used to measure relative dispersion. However, since it is based on the sample mean and standard deviation, outliers can adversely affect the CV. Additionally, for skewed distributions the mean…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-28 Chandima N. P. G. Arachchige , Luke A. Prendergast , Robert G. Staudte

The era of big data is coming, and evidence-based medicine is attracting increasing attention to improve decision making in medical practice via integrating evidence from well designed and conducted clinical research. Meta-analysis is a…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-05 Dehui Luo , Xiang Wan , Jiming Liu , Tiejun Tong
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