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This paper clarifies a fundamental difference between causal inference and traditional statistical inference by formalizing a mathematical distinction between their respective parameters. We connect two major approaches to causal inference,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-29 Muye Liu , Jun Xie

We propose new concepts in order to analyze and model the dependence structure between two time series. Our methods rely exclusively on the order structure of the data points. Hence, the methods are stable under monotone transformations of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-02 Alexander Schnurr , Herold Dehling

We focus on the problem estimating a monotone trend function under additive and dependent noise. New point-wise confidence interval estimators under both short- and long-range dependent errors are introduced and studied. These intervals are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-23 Pramita Bagchi , Moulinath Banerjee , Stilian Stoev

In spatio-temporal analysis, we often record data at specific time intervals but with varying spatial locations between these timepoints. We propose a conditional model to analyze such spatio-temporal data that accommodates the dependencies…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Subhrajyoty Roy , Soudeep Deb , Sayar Karmakar , Rishideep Roy

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-17 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , David Huber , Rafael Cabañas

We propose a test of the conditional independence of random variables $X$ and~$Y$ given~$Z$ under the additional assumption that $X$ is stochastically nondecreasing in~$Z$. The well-documented hardness of testing conditional independence…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Rohan Hore , Jake A. Soloff , Rina Foygel Barber , Richard J. Samworth

We consider estimation in a particular semiparametric regression model for the mean of a counting process with ``panel count'' data. The basic model assumption is that the conditional mean function of the counting process is of the form…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Jon A. Wellner , Ying Zhang

Causal inference is known to be very challenging when only observational data are available. Randomized experiments are often costly and impractical and in instrumental variable regression the number of instruments has to exceed the number…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-19 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Selective inference (post-selection inference) is a methodology that has attracted much attention in recent years in the fields of statistics and machine learning. Naive inference based on data that are also used for model selection tends…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-25 Yoshiyuki Ninomiya , Yuta Umezu , Ichiro Takeuchi

This article proposes a novel test for the martingale difference hypothesis based on the martingale difference divergence function, a recently developed dependence measure suitable for measuring the degree of conditional mean dependence of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-10 Luca Mattia Rolla

We consider after-study statistical inference for sequentially designed experiments wherein multiple units are assigned treatments for multiple time points using treatment policies that adapt over time. Our goal is to provide inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-10 Raaz Dwivedi , Katherine Tian , Sabina Tomkins , Predrag Klasnja , Susan Murphy , Devavrat Shah

Linear mixed-effects models are widely used in analyzing repeated measures data, including clustered and longitudinal data, where inferences of both fixed effects and variance components are of importance. Unlike the fixed effect inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-31 J. Zhang , W. Guo , J. S. Carpenter , Andrew Leroux , K. R. Merikangas , N. G. Martin , I. B. Hickie , H. Shou , H. Li

This paper introduces a new method for testing the statistical significance of estimated parameters in predictive regressions. The approach features a new family of test statistics that are robust to the degree of persistence of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-04 Jean-Yves Pitarakis

In this paper, two tests, based on CUSUM of the residuals and least squares estimation, are studied to detect in real time a change-point in a nonlinear model. A first test statistic is proposed by extension of a method already used in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-28 Gabriela Ciuperca

Classical causal and statistical inference methods typically assume the observed data consists of independent realizations. However, in many applications this assumption is inappropriate due to a network of dependences between units in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-02 Rohit Bhattacharya , Daniel Malinsky , Ilya Shpitser

This paper considers inference for conditional moment inequality models using a multiscale statistic. We derive the asymptotic distribution of this test statistic and use the result to propose feasible critical values that have a simple…

Applications · Statistics 2015-12-10 Timothy B. Armstrong , Hock Peng Chan

Tests for structural breaks in time series should ideally be sensitive to breaks in the parameter of interest, while being robust to nuisance changes. Statistical analysis thus needs to allow for some form of nonstationarity under the null…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Fabian Mies

We propose a testing procedure based on the Wilcoxon two-sample test statistic in order to test for change-points in the mean of long-range dependent data. We show that the corresponding self-normalized test statistic converges in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-10 Annika Betken

We present the first framework for Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes when the temporal data appear in the form of panel counts. Panel count data frequently arise when experimental subjects are observed only at discrete time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-13 Hongyi Ding , Young Lee , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

In this paper we consider a regression model that allows for time series covariates as well as heteroscedasticity with a regression function that is modelled nonparametrically. We assume that the regression function changes at some unknown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Maria Mohr , Leonie Selk