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Estimation of a dynamical system's latent state subject to sensor noise and model inaccuracies remains a critical yet difficult problem in robotics. While Kalman filters provide the optimal solution in the least squared sense for linear and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-02-10 Fahira Afzal Maken , Fabio Ramos , Lionel Ott

In this paper, we write the time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model involving K explanatory variables and T observations as a constant coefficient regression model with KT explanatory variables. In contrast with much of the existing…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-01 Niko Hauzenberger , Florian Huber , Gary Koop , Luca Onorante

De Facto, signal processing is the interpolation and extrapolation of a sequence of observations viewed as a realization of a stochastic process. Its role in applied statistics ranges from scenarios in forecasting and time series analysis,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-12 Nozer D. Singpurwalla , Nicholas G. Polson , Refik Soyer

We consider a non-linear filtering problem, whereby the signal obeys the stochastic Navier-Stokes equations and is observed through a linear mapping with additive noise. The setup is relevant to data assimilation for numerical weather…

Computation · Statistics 2018-04-10 Francesc Pons Llopis , Nikolas Kantas , Alexandros Beskos , Ajay Jasra

In a Bayesian context, theoretical parameters are correlated random variables. Then, the constraints on one parameter can be improved by either measuring this parameter more precisely - or by measuring the other parameters more precisely.…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2016-02-17 L. Amendola , E. Sellentin

This article discusses a partially adapted particle filter for estimating the likelihood of a nonlinear structural econometric state space models whose state transition density cannot be expressed in closed form. The filter generates the…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-05 Jamie Hall , Michael K. Pitt , Robert Kohn

The classic, two-component, crust-superfluid model of a neutron star can be formulated as a noise-driven, linear dynamical system, in which the angular velocities of the crust and superfluid are tracked using a Kalman filter applied to…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2021-07-14 Patrick M. Meyers , Nicholas J. O'Neill , Andrew Melatos , Robin J. Evans

Nonlinear Kalman Filters are powerful and widely-used techniques when trying to estimate the hidden state of a stochastic nonlinear dynamic system. In this paper, we extend the Smart Sampling Kalman Filter (S2KF) with a new point symmetric…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-06-11 Jannik Steinbring , Martin Pander , Uwe D. Hanebeck

In high-dimensional Bayesian statistics, various methods have been developed, including prior distributions that induce parameter sparsity to handle many parameters. Yet, these approaches often overlook the rich spectral structure of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-06 Tomoya Wakayama , Masaaki Imaizumi

Kalman filtering is a widely used framework for Bayesian estimation. The partitioned update Kalman filter applies a Kalman filter update in parts so that the most linear parts of measurements are applied first. In this paper, we generalize…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-16 Matti Raitoharju , Ángel F. García-Fernández , Robert Piché

We introduce a new sequential methodology to calibrate the fixed parameters and track the stochastic dynamical variables of a state-space system. The proposed method is based on the nested hybrid filtering (NHF) framework of [1], that…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-24 Sara Pérez-Vieites , Joaquín Míguez

Finite element model updating is challenging because 1) the problem is oftentimes underdetermined while the measurements are limited and/or incomplete; 2) many combinations of parameters may yield responses that are similar with respect to…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-28 Kai Zhou , Jiong Tang

Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2016-04-20 Carlo Albert , Simone Ulzega , Ruedi Stoop

Ensemble filters implement sequential Bayesian estimation by representing the probability distribution by an ensemble mean and covariance. Unbiased square root ensemble filters use deterministic algorithms to produce an analysis (posterior)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-13 Evan Kwiatkowski , Jan Mandel

The two unobservable state variables representing the short and long term factors introduced by Schwartz and Smith in [16] for risk-neutral pricing of futures contracts are modelled as two correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. The Kalman…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-05 Karol Binkowski , Peilun He , Nino Kordzakhia , Pavel Shevchenko

We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Nicolas Bianco , Mauro Bernardi , Daniele Bianchi

We develop a fast algorithm for Kalman Filter applied to the random walk forecast model. The key idea is an efficient representation of the estimate covariance matrix at each time-step as a weighted sum of two contributions - the process…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-05-13 Arvind K. Saibaba , Eric Miller , Peter K. Kitanidis

Linear models with a growing number of parameters have been widely used in modern statistics. One important problem about this kind of model is the variable selection issue. Bayesian approaches, which provide a stochastic search of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-03 Zuofeng Shang , Murray K. Clayton

Marginalization techniques are presented for the Bayesian filtering problem under the assumption of Gaussian priors and posteriors and a set of sequentially more constraining state space model assumptions. The techniques provide the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-12 John-Olof Nilsson

Current experimental design techniques for dynamical systems often only incorporate measurement noise, while dynamical systems also involve process noise. To construct experimental designs we need to quantify their information content. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Arno Strouwen , Bart M. Nicolaï , Peter Goos