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Two non-intrusive uncertainty propagation approaches are proposed for the performance analysis of engineering systems described by expensive-to-evaluate deterministic computer models with parameters defined as interval variables. These…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-15 Alice Cicirello , Filippo Giunta

One of the core problems of modern statistics is to approximate difficult-to-compute probability densities. This problem is especially important in Bayesian statistics, which frames all inference about unknown quantities as a calculation…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-11 David M. Blei , Alp Kucukelbir , Jon D. McAuliffe

The purpose of this article is to obtain a better understanding of the extended variational principle (EVP). The EVP is a formula for the thermodynamic pressure of a statistical mechanical system as a limit of a sequence of minimization…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2011-08-25 Eugene Kritchevski , Shannon Starr

Here, we observe that mean-field game (MFG) systems admit a two-player infinite-dimensional general-sum differential game formulation. We show that particular regimes of this game reduce to previously known variational principles.…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2018-04-25 Marco Cirant , Levon Nurbekyan

In recent years, there has been an increasing demand on efficient algorithms for large scale change point detection problems. To this end, we propose seeded binary segmentation, an approach relying on a deterministic construction of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-13 Solt Kovács , Housen Li , Peter Bühlmann , Axel Munk

We consider the optimization of an uncertain objective over continuous and multi-dimensional decision spaces in problems in which we are only provided with observational data. We propose a novel algorithmic framework that is tractable,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Dimitris Bertsimas , Christopher McCord

In intractable, undirected graphical models, an intuitive way of creating structured mean field approximations is to select an acyclic tractable subgraph. We show that the hardness of computing the objective function and gradient of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-05-14 Alexandre Bouchard-Cote , Michael I. Jordan

We propose a general framework for solving statistical mechanics of systems with finite size. The approach extends the celebrated variational mean-field approaches using autoregressive neural networks, which support direct sampling and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-06-10 Dian Wu , Lei Wang , Pan Zhang

Bayesian calibration of black-box computer models offers an established framework to obtain a posterior distribution over model parameters. Traditional Bayesian calibration involves the emulation of the computer model and an additive model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Sébastien Marmin , Maurizio Filippone

Discrete choice models are commonly used by applied statisticians in numerous fields, such as marketing, economics, finance, and operations research. When agents in discrete choice models are assumed to have differing preferences, exact…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-06-04 Michael Braun , Jon McAuliffe

We propose an algorithmic framework, that employs active subspace techniques, for scalable global optimization of functions with low effective dimension (also referred to as low-rank functions). This proposal replaces the original…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-02-01 Coralia Cartis , Xinzhu Liang , Estelle Massart , Adilet Otemissov

Mixture models are widely used in Bayesian statistics and machine learning, in particular in computational biology, natural language processing and many other fields. Variational inference, a technique for approximating intractable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-03 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Pierre Alquier

Information projections are the key building block of variational inference algorithms and are used to approximate a target probabilistic model by projecting it onto a family of tractable distributions. In general, there is no guarantee on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-10-06 Lun-Kai Hsu , Tudor Achim , Stefano Ermon

The theory of mean field games aims at studying deterministic or stochastic differential games (Nash equilibria) as the number of agents tends to infinity. Since very few mean field games have explicit or semi-explicit solutions, numerical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-11 Yves Achdou , Mathieu Laurière

This paper proposes a new mathematical paradigm to analyze discrete-time mean-field games. It is shown that finding Nash equilibrium solutions for a general class of discrete-time mean-field games is equivalent to solving an optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-08-29 Xin Guo , Anran Hu , Junzi Zhang

This paper is devoted to developing and applications of a generalized differential theory of variational analysis that allows us to work in incomplete normed spaces, without employing conventional variational techniques based on…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-17 Ashkan Mohammadi , Boris Mordukhovich

Mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) is widely employed for modeling combinatorial optimization problems. In practice, similar MILP instances with only coefficient variations are routinely solved, and machine learning (ML) algorithms are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-07 Qingyu Han , Linxin Yang , Qian Chen , Xiang Zhou , Dong Zhang , Akang Wang , Ruoyu Sun , Xiaodong Luo

This paper considers an optimization problem for a dynamical system whose evolution depends on a collection of binary decision variables. We develop scalable approximation algorithms with provable suboptimality bounds to provide…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-10-31 Insoon Yang , Samuel A. Burden , Ram Rajagopal , S. Shankar Sastry , Claire J. Tomlin

We develop an advanced mean field method for approximating averages in probabilistic data models that is based on the TAP approach of disorder physics. In contrast to conventional TAP, where the knowledge of the distribution of couplings…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-07 Manfred Opper , Ole Winther

We present a new mixed integer formulation for the discrete informative path planning problem in random fields. The objective is to compute a budget constrained path while collecting measurements whose linear estimate results in minimum…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-21 Shamak Dutta , Nils Wilde , Stephen L. Smith
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