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Related papers: A Tutorial on Time-Evolving Dynamical Bayesian Inf…

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In this tutorial, three examples of stochastic systems are considered: A strongly-damped oscillator, a weakly-damped oscillator and an undamped oscillator (integrator) driven by noise. The evolution of these systems is characterized by the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-02-02 C. J. McKinstrie , T. J. Stirling , A. S. Helmy

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of changes to real-world systems. Data in these tests may be difficult to collect and outcomes may have high variance, resulting in potentially large measurement error.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-27 Benjamin Letham , Brian Karrer , Guilherme Ottoni , Eytan Bakshy

Synchrosqueezed transforms are non-linear processes for a sharpened time-frequency representation of wave-like components. They are efficient tools for identifying and analyzing wave-like components from their superposition. This paper is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-10 Haizhao Yang

Complex dynamical systems may exhibit multiple steady states, including time-periodic limit cycles, where the final trajectory depends on initial conditions. With tuning of parameters, limit cycles can proliferate or merge at an exceptional…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-12-03 Sergei Shmakov , Peter B. Littlewood

The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-12-14 Martin Heßler , Oliver Kamps

The modeling of intrinsic noise in pulsar timing residual data is of crucial importance for Gravitational Wave (GW) detection and pulsar timing (astro)physics in general. The noise budget in pulsars is a collection of several well studied…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2016-05-04 Justin Ellis , Neil Cornish

The identification and modeling of time-varying systems is a fundamental challenge in signal processing and system identification. To address this challenge, we propose a class of time-varying state-space model (SSM) based neural networks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Sanja Karilanova , Subhrakanti Dey , Ayça Özçelikkale

Unidirectionally coupled dynamical system is studied by focusing on the input (or boundary) dependence. Due to convective instability, noise at an up-flow is spatially amplified to form an oscillation. The response, given by the down-flow…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 Koichi Fujimoto , Kunihiko Kaneko

This paper introduces a novel approach for modelling time-varying connectivity in neuroimaging data, focusing on the slow fluctuations in synaptic efficacy that mediate neuronal dynamics. Building on the framework of Dynamic Causal…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-12-05 Johan Medrano , Karl J. Friston , Peter Zeidman

The traditional statistical inference is static, in the sense that the estimate of the quantity of interest does not affect the future evolution of the quantity. In some sequential estimation problems however, the future values of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-03 Aolin Xu , Peng Guan

This paper deals with the noise identification of a linear time-varying stochastic dynamic system described by the state-space model. In particular, the stress is laid on the design of the correlation measurement difference method for…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-12 Oliver Kost , Jindrich Dunik , Ivo Puncochar , Ondrej Straka

Many natural systems, such as neurons firing in the brain or basketball teams traversing a court, give rise to time series data with complex, nonlinear dynamics. We can gain insight into these systems by decomposing the data into segments…

This paper introduces a notion of data informativity for stabilization tailored to continuous-time signals and systems. We establish results comparable to those known for discrete-time systems with sampled data. We justify that additional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-06-14 Jaap Eising , Jorge Cortes

Models of coupled oscillators are useful in describing a wide variety of phenomena in physics, biology and economics. These models typically rest on the premise that the oscillators are weakly coupled, meaning that amplitudes can be assumed…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2018-12-18 Erik D. Fagerholm , Rosalyn J. Moran , Inês R. Violante , Robert Leech , Karl J. Friston

Network inference has been extensively studied in several fields, such as systems biology and social sciences. Learning network topology and internal dynamics is essential to understand mechanisms of complex systems. In particular, sparse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-13 Yasen Wang , Junyang Jin , Jorge Goncalves

Causal inference is a fundamental research topic for discovering the cause-effect relationships in many disciplines. However, not all algorithms are equally well-suited for a given dataset. For instance, some approaches may only be able to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Zhipeng Ma , Marco Kemmerling , Daniel Buschmann , Chrismarie Enslin , Daniel Lütticke , Robert H. Schmitt

The identification of Linear Time-Varying (LTV) systems from input-output data is a fundamental yet challenging ill-posed inverse problem. This work introduces a unified Bayesian framework that models the system's impulse response, $h(t,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-01 Yaniv Shulman

Whereas the importance of transient dynamics to the functionality and management of complex systems has been increasingly recognized, most of the studies are based on models. Yet in realistic situations the models are often unknown and what…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2021-10-25 Huawei Fan , Liang Wang , Yao Du , Yafeng Wang , Jinghua Xiao , Xingang Wang

Certain neural network architectures, in the infinite-layer limit, lead to systems of nonlinear differential equations. Motivated by this idea, we develop a framework for analyzing time signals based on non-autonomous dynamical equations.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-19 Ryeongkyung Yoon , Harish S. Bhat , Braxton Osting

Ordinary differential equation models are used to describe dynamic processes across biology. To perform likelihood-based parameter inference on these models, it is necessary to specify a statistical process representing the contribution of…