Related papers: Estimating Moving Average Processes with an improv…
We introduce a recursive algorithm of conveniently general form for estimating the coefficient of a moving average model of order one and obtain convergence results for both correct and misspecified MA(1) models. The algorithm encompasses…
In this paper, we consider the normalized least squares estimator of the parameter in a mildly stationary first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) model with dependent errors which are modeled as a mildly stationary AR(1) process. By martingale…
We consider estimation procedures which are recursive in the sense that each successive estimator is obtained from the previous one by a simple adjustment. We propose a wide class of recursive estimation procedures for the general…
Stationary processes have been extensively studied in the literature. Their applications include modeling and forecasting numerous real life phenomena such as natural disasters, sales and market movements. When stationary processes are…
We consider estimation procedures which are recursive in the sense that each successive estimator is obtained from the previous one by a simple adjustment. We study rate of convergence of recursive estimation procedures for the general…
A general method is proposed which allows one to estimate drift and diffusion coefficients of a stochastic process governed by a Langevin equation. It extends a previously devised approach [R. Friedrich et al., Physics Letters A 271, 217…
The standard approach for studying the periodic ARMA model with coefficients that vary over the seasons is to express it in a vector form. In this paper we introduce an alternative method which views the periodic formulation as a time…
We consider a new method of the semiparametric statistical estimation for the continuous-time moving average L\'evy processes. We derive the convergence rates of the proposed estimators, and show that these rates are optimal in the minimax…
We derive a closed-form expression for the finite predictor coefficients of multivariate ARMA (autoregressive moving-average) processes. The expression is given in terms of several explicit matrices that are of fixed sizes independent of…
This work presents a Bayesian approach for the estimation of Beta Autoregressive Moving Average ($\beta$ARMA) models. We discuss standard choice for the prior distributions and employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the…
This paper focuses on recursive estimation of time varying autoregressive processes in a nonparametric setting. The stability of the model is revisited and uniform results are provided when the time-varying autoregressive parameters belong…
In this work we introduce the class of unit-Weibull Autoregressive Moving Average models for continuous random variables taking values in $(0,1)$. The proposed model is an observation driven one, for which, conditionally on a set of…
We present a nonparametric method for estimating the value and several derivatives of an unknown, sufficiently smooth real-valued function of real-valued arguments from a finite sample of points, where both the function arguments and the…
A formula is derived for the log quantile difference of the temporal aggregation of some types of stable moving average processes, MA(q). The shape of the log quantile difference as a function of the aggregation level is examined and shown…
In this paper we propose a recursive online algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-varying ARCH process. The estimation is done by updating the estimator at time point $t-1$ with observations about the time point $t$ to yield an…
Producing probabilistic guarantee for several steps of a predicted signal follow a temporal logic defined behavior has its rising importance in monitoring. In this paper, we derive a method to compute the joint probability distribution of…
Model averaging (MA), a technique for combining estimators from a set of candidate models, has attracted increasing attention in machine learning and statistics. In the existing literature, there is an implicit understanding that MA can be…
We consider a mixed moving average (MMA) process X driven by a L\'evy basis and prove that it is weakly dependent with rates computable in terms of the moving average kernel and the characteristic quadruple of the L\'evy basis. Using this…
A moderate deviation principle for functionals, with at most quadratic growth, of moving average processes is established. The main assumptions on the moving average process are a Logarithmic Sobolev inequality for the driving random…
We define a new multivariate time series model by generalizing the ARMAX process in a multivariate way. We give conditions on stationarity and analyze local dependence and domains of attraction. As a consequence of the obtained result, we…