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Related papers: Solar-cycle precursors and predictions

200 papers

The predictability, or lack thereof, of the solar cycle is governed by numerous separate physical processes that act in unison in the interior of the Sun. Magnetic flux transport and the finite time delay it introduces, specifically in the…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 A. R. Yeates , D. Nandy , D. H. Mackay

The 11-yr cycle of sunspots undergo amplitude modulation over longer timescales. As a part of this long-term modulation in solar activity, the decennial rhythm occasionally breaks, with quiescent phases with very few sunspots observed over…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-09-05 Chitradeep Saha , Sanghita Chandra , Dibyendu Nandy

We explore the cause of the solar cycle variabilities using a novel 3D Babcock--Leighton dynamo model. In this model, based on the toroidal flux at the base of the convection zone, bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are produced with…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-01-30 Bidya Binay Karak , Mark Miesch

The ongoing 11-year cycle of solar activity is considerably less vigorous than the three cycles before. It was preceded by a very deep activity minimum with a low polar magnetic flux, the source of the toroidal field responsible for solar…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-08-06 Jie Jiang , Robert H. Cameron , Manfred Schuessler

The solar cycle onset at mid-latitudes, the slow down of the sunspot drift toward the equator, the tail-like attachment and the overlap of successive cycles at the time of activity minimum are delicate issues in $\alpha\Omega$ dynamo wave…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2016-09-07 R. Simoniello , S. C. Tripathy , K. Jain , F. Hill

Observations of the sun suggest that solar activities systematically create north-south hemispheric asymmetries. For instance, the hemisphere in which the sunspot activity is more active tends to switch after the early half of each solar…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-04-12 D. Syukuya , K. Kusano

Duration of the extended solar cycles is taken into the consideration. The beginning of cycles is counted from the moment of polarity reversal of large-scale magnetic field in high latitudes, occurring in the sunspot cycle n till the…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 A. G. Tlatov

Detailed models of the solar cycle require information about the starting time and rise time as well as the shape and amplitude of the cycle. However, none of these models includes a discussion of the variations in the length of the cycle,…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 Michael L. Rogers , Mercedes T. Richards , Donald St. P. Richards

The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-11-30 Alexandre Lemerle , Paul Charbonneau , Arnaud Carignan-Dugas

Sunspots and the plethora of other phenomena occuring in the course of the 11-year cycle of solar activity are a consequence of the emergence of magnetic flux at the solar surface. The observed orientations of bipolar sunspot groups imply…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-24 Robert Cameron , Manfred Schüssler

The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-09-11 Prantika Bhowmik , Dibyendu Nandy

We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-06-29 Alejandro Macario-Rojas , Katharine L. Smith , Peter C. E. Roberts

The sunspot cycle is the magnetic cycle of the Sun produced by the dynamo process. A central idea of the solar dynamo is that the toroidal and the poloidal magnetic fields of the Sun sustain each other. We discuss the relevant observational…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-01-02 Arnab Rai Choudhuri

The 11-year cycle of solar activity follows Hale's law by reversing the magnetic polarity of leading and following sunspots in bipolar regions during the minima of activity. In the 1996-97 solar minimum, most solar activity emerged in…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-10-31 E. E. Benevolenskaya , J. T. Hoeksema , A. G. Kosovichev , P. H. Scherrer

We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-06-23 Paul J. Bushby , Steven M. Tobias

The Schwabe (~11 yr) value for the annual sunspot number is sometimes uncritically applied to other measures of solar activity, direct and indirect, including the 10.7 cm radio flux, the inflow of galactic cosmic rays, solar flare…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-12-08 Claudio Vita-Finzi

Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-11 Yaming Yu , David A. van Dyk , Vinay L. Kashyap , C. Alex Young

The flux transport dynamo, in which the poloidal magnetic field is generated by the Babcock--Leighton mechanism and the meridional circulation plays a crucial role, has emerged as an attractive model for the solar cycle. Based on…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-09-05 Arnab Rai Choudhuri

It is proposed that the observed near-surface inflows towards the active regions and sunspot zones provide a nonlinear feedback mechanism that limits the amplitude of a Babcock-Leighton-type solar dynamo and determines the variation of the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-11 R. H. Cameron , M. Schuessler

Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce and because the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-09-30 Irina N. Kitiashvili