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This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-03-27 Bent Flyvbjerg , Mette K. Skamris Holm , Søren L. Buhl

Managing large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is difficult due to frequent misinformation about the costs which results in large cost overruns that often threaten the overall project viability. This paper investigates the…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-09 Chantal C. Cantarelli , Bent Flybjerg , Eric J. E. Molin , Bert van Wee

This paper examines three independent explanatory variables and their relation with cost overrun in order to decide whether this is different for Dutch infrastructure projects compared to worldwide findings. The three independent variables…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-01-27 Chantal C. Cantarelli , Bert van Wee , Eric J. E. Molin , Bent Flyvbjerg

Lock-in, the escalating commitment of decision-makers to an ineffective course of action, has the potential to explain the large cost overruns in large scale transportation infrastructure projects. Lock-in can occur both at the…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-09 Chantal C. Cantarelli , Bent Flybjerg , Bert van Wee , Eric J. E. Molin

Using a methodology similar to that used the in the worldwide research, the cost performance of Dutch large-scale transport infrastructure projects is determined. In the Netherlands, cost overruns are as common as cost underruns but because…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-01-27 Chantal C. Cantarelli , Eric J. E. Molin , Bert van Wee , Bent Flyvbjerg

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$59…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-03-28 Bent Flyvbjerg , Mette Skamris Holm , Søren L. Buhl

Strategic behaviour is one of the main explanations for cost overruns. It can theoretically be supported by agency theory, in which strategic behaviour is the result of asymmetric information between the principal and agent. This paper…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-09 Chantal C. Cantarelli , Caspar G. Chorus , Scott W. Cunningham

The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-03-27 Bent Flyvbjerg

Risk, including economic risk, is increasingly a concern for public policy and management. The possibility of dealing effectively with risk is hampered, however, by lack of a sound empirical basis for risk assessment and management. The…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-04-01 Bent Flyvbjerg

This study aims to assist Company leaders and management team in providing more accurate time and cost estimations for future software projects. This paper focuses on analyzing the relationship between project complexity and cost and time…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2022-03-02 Mahta Taghi Zadeh , Rasha Kashef

Implementing large-scale information and communication technology (IT) projects carries large risks and easily might disrupt operations, waste taxpayers' money, and create negative publicity. Because of the high risks it is important that…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-06-04 Alexander Budzier , Bent Flyvbjerg

This paper argues, first, that a major problem in the planning of large infrastructure projects is the high level of misinformation about costs and benefits that decision makers face in deciding whether to build, and the high risks such…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-04-01 Bent Flyvbjerg

The Economist recently reported that infrastructure spending is the largest it is ever been as a share of world GDP. With $22 trillion in projected investments over the next ten years in emerging economies alone, the magazine calls it the…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-04-01 Bent Flyvbjerg , Massimo Garbuio , Dan Lovallo

Cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects know no geographical limits, overruns are a global phenomenon. Nevertheless, the size of cost overruns varies with location. In the Netherlands, cost overruns appear to be smaller compared…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-09 Chantal C. Cantarelli , Bent Flyvbjerg , Søren L. Buhl

Modern blockchain ecosystems comprise many heterogeneous networks, creating a growing need for interoperability. Cross-chain bridges provide the core infrastructure for this interoperability by enabling verifiable state transitions that…

Performance · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Yiyue Cao , Mingzhe Zheng , Lin William Cong , Siguang Li , Xuechao Wang

Most cities in the US and in the world were organized around car traffic. In particular, large structures such as urban freeways or ring roads were built for reducing car traffic congestion. With the evolution of public transportation,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-03-29 Erwan Taillanter , Marc Barthelemy

Managing project risk is a key part of the successful implementation of any large project and is widely recognized as a best practice for public agencies to deliver infrastructures. The conventional method of identifying and evaluating…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Abdolmajid Erfani

If managers assume a normal or near-normal distribution of Information Technology (IT) project cost overruns, as is common, and cost overruns can be shown to follow a power-law distribution, managers may be unwittingly exposing their…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-10-05 Bent Flyvbjerg , Alexander Budzier , Jong Seok Lee , Mark Keil , Daniel Lunn , Dirk W. Bester

The energy and material processing industries are traditionally characterized by very large-scale physical capital that is custom-built with long lead times and long lifetimes. However, recent technological advancement in low-cost…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-31 Eric Dahlgren , Tim Leung

For all line-based transit systems like bus, metro and tram, the routes of the lines and the frequencies at which they are operated are determining for the operational performance of the system. However, as transit line planning happens…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-17 Marie Schmidt , Anita Schöbel
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