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We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian parameter inference in non-linear state-space models with intractable likelihoods. Sequential Monte Carlo with approximate Bayesian computations (SMC-ABC) is one approach to approximate the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-06-14 Johan Dahlin , Mattias Villani , Thomas B. Schön

We analyze a lightweight simulation-based inference method that infers simulator parameters using only a regression-based projection of the observed data. After fitting a surrogate linear regression once, the procedure simulates small…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Arya Farahi , Jonah Rose , Paul Torrey

Simulation models often lack tractable likelihood functions, making likelihood-free inference methods indispensable. Approximate Bayesian computation generates likelihood-free posterior samples by comparing simulated and observed data…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-02 Joel Dyer , Patrick Cannon , Sebastian M Schmon

The article describe the model, derivation, and implementation of variational Bayesian inference for linear and logistic regression, both with and without automatic relevance determination. It has the dual function of acting as a tutorial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-18 Jan Drugowitsch

Background: The proportional odds (PO) model is the most common analytic method for ordinal outcomes in randomised controlled trials. While parameter estimates obtained under departures from PO can be interpreted as an average odds ratio,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Chris J. Selman , Katherine J. Lee , Steven Y. C. Tong , Mark Jones , Robert K. Mahar

We develop a Bayesian inference method for discretely-observed stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Inference is challenging for most SDEs, due to the analytical intractability of the likelihood function. Nevertheless, forward…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-08 Petar Jovanovski , Andrew Golightly , Umberto Picchini

We investigate the problem of statistical inference for logistic regression with high-dimensional covariates in settings where dependence among individuals is induced by an underlying Markov random field. Going beyond the pairwise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-23 Josh Miles , Sohom Bhattacharya

Numerical simulations are crucial for modeling complex systems, but calibrating them becomes challenging when data are noisy or incomplete and likelihood evaluations are computationally expensive. Bayesian calibration offers an interesting…

Ordinal categorical data are routinely encountered in many practical applications. When the primary goal is to construct a regression model for ordinal outcomes, cumulative link models represent one of the most popular choices to link the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-13 Emanuele Aliverti

We investigate the complexity of logistic regression models which is defined by counting the number of indistinguishable distributions that the model can represent (Balasubramanian, 1997). We find that the complexity of logistic models with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Nicola Bulso , Matteo Marsili , Yasser Roudi

How can one perform Bayesian inference on stochastic simulators with intractable likelihoods? A recent approach is to learn the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural network-based conditional density estimators.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-21 David S. Greenberg , Marcel Nonnenmacher , Jakob H. Macke

In the era of big data, variable selection is a key technology for handling high-dimensional problems with a small sample size but a large number of covariables. Different variable selection methods were proposed for different models, such…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-14 Yinrui Sun , Hangjin Jiang

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-03 George Papamakarios , Iain Murray

Bayesian inference without the likelihood evaluation, or likelihood-free inference, has been a key research topic in simulation studies for gaining quantitatively validated simulation models on real-world datasets. As the likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-07 Dongjun Kim , Kyungwoo Song , YoonYeong Kim , Yongjin Shin , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon , Weonyoung Joo

Synthetic likelihood is an attractive approach to likelihood-free inference when an approximately Gaussian summary statistic for the data, informative for inference about the parameters, is available. The synthetic likelihood method derives…

A computationally simple approach to inference in state space models is proposed, using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC avoids evaluation of an intractable likelihood by matching summary statistics for the observed data with…

Algorithms for exact and approximate inference in stochastic logic programs (SLPs) are presented, based respectively, on variable elimination and importance sampling. We then show how SLPs can be used to represent prior distributions for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 James Cussens

We develop methodology for valid inference after variable selection in logistic regression when the responses are partially observed, that is, when one observes a set of error-prone testing outcomes instead of the true values of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Qinyan Shen , Karl Gregory , Xianzheng Huang

Estimation of parameters that obey specific constraints is crucial in statistics and machine learning; for example, when parameters are required to satisfy boundedness, monotonicity, or linear inequalities. Traditional approaches impose…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Lachlan Astfalck , Deborshee Sen , Sayan Patra , Edward Cripps , David Dunson

Bayesian inference for statistical models with a hierarchical structure is often characterized by specification of priors for parameters at different levels of the hierarchy. When higher level parameters are functions of the lower level…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Ken B. Newman , Cristiano Villa , Ruth King
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