Related papers: Accuracy assessment of the UT1 prediction method b…
A new method is developed for prediction of UT1. The method is based on construction of a general harmonic model of the Earth rotation using all the data available for the last 80-100 years, and modified autoregression technique. A rigorous…
Improvement of the prediction accuracy of the Earth's rotation parameters (ERP) is one of the main problems of applied astrometry. In order to solve this problem, various approaches are used and in order to select the best one, comparison…
The UT1 Intensives results heavily depend on the celestial pole offset (CPO) model used during data processing. Since accurate CPO values are available with delay from two to four weeks, CPO predictions are necessarily applied to the UT1…
Two methods of prediction of the Pole coordinates and TAI-UTC were tested -- extrapolation of the deterministic components and ARIMA. It was found that each of these methods is most effective for certain length of prognosis. For short-time…
AIMS: An alternative to the traditional method for modeling kinematics of the Earth's rotation is proposed. The purpose of developing the new approach is to provide a self-consistent and simple description of the Earth's rotation in a way…
The C01 Earth orientation parameters (EOP) series provided by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) is the longest reliable record of the Earth's rotation. In particular, the polar motion (PM) series…
We present first results of UT1-UTC determinations using the VLBI Global Observing System (VGOS). During December 2019 through February 2020 a series of 1~hour long observing sessions were performed using the VGOS stations at Ishioka in…
VLBI observations carried out by global networks provide the most accurate values of the precession-nutation angles determining the position of the celestial pole; as a rule, these results become available two to four weeks after the…
A well known problem with Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) prediction is that a prediction strategy proved to be the best for some testing time span and prediction length may not remain the same for other time intervals. In this paper, we…
It is customary to perform analysis of the Earth's rotation in two steps: first, to present results of estimation of the Earth orientation parameters in the form of time series based on a simplified model of variations of the Earth's…
Seasonal forecasting is a crucial task when it comes to detecting the extreme heat and colds that occur due to climate change. Confidence in the predictions should be reliable since a small increase in the temperatures in a year has a big…
We present improvements to the pointing accuracy of the South Pole Telescope (SPT) using machine learning. The ability of the SPT to point accurately at the sky is limited by its structural imperfections, which are impacted by the extreme…
The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively…
A new method of polarimetric calibration is presented in which the instrumental response is derived from regular observations of PSR J0437-4715 based on the assumption that the mean polarized emission from this millisecond pulsar remains…
There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the…
In this paper, we present results on improving out-of-domain weather prediction and uncertainty estimation as part of the \texttt{Shifts Challenge on Robustness and Uncertainty under Real-World Distributional Shift} challenge. We find that…
Amongst the available technologies for earthquake research, remote sensing has been commonly used due to its unique features such as fast imaging and wide image-acquisition range. Nevertheless, early studies on pre-earthquake and…
We describe and experimentally investigate a method to construct forecasting algorithms for stationary and ergodic processes based on universal measures (or so-called universal data compressors). Using some geophysical and economical time…
A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…
Last two decades, the problem of robotic mapping has made a lot of progress in the research community. However, since the data provided by the sensor still contains noise, how to obtain an accurate map is still an open problem. In this…